Hoops Analyst

I like analyzing the PFs. They’re a fairly easy bunch to look at. Basically they need to meet the following benchmarks:

• Hit .580 on 2-point shots and score 20.0 P40. In both cases, the higher the better. The best have typically been over .600 and pushed 25.0 P40 as they got older. For freshmen some leeway is given.
• At least 10.0 R40, preferably higher. The best have been at least 12.0. Again the higher the better here.
• Combined 3.5 steals and blocks per 40 minutes, or SB40. Blocks are more important, but if combining blocks and steals is what it takes to get a player to 3.5, that has been good enough. Players who fall way below this level need to develop an outside shot to stick.
• An A/TO that is at least 0.3. This one doesn’t need to be great, just not disastrous.

The 2010 group is pretty intriguing. Favors stands above the crowd and Davis looks like a solid pro. After that there just isn’t much, unless you want to count an impressive group of combo forwards or some of the smaller centers as PFs. Adding them makes the group a pretty impressive bunch. This is just the pure PFs. Here are the numbers:

The job of the combo forward or, more accurately the small PF, is to give his team a different look. The CF usually comes in to play PF when the team needs to go smaller and quicker. But they can also be used at SF, if a team needs to go bigger. The nature of the position almost guarantees that this player is going to come off the bench. Because of that this group is often lacking in star power. That isn’t the case this year, as Aminu, Patterson and Babbitt all appear to be on the rise as the draft approaches.

• Offensive skills are a given just like for every position. The player must approach 20 P40 with good efficiency. It’s also important to have a varied offensive game, meaning a decent outside shot. Part of the appeal of such players is the outside shot that can pull the opposing PF to the perimeter and clear space underneath.
• Rebounding and defense. The prospect has to be at least adequate here and the better he is, obviously the better prospect he becomes. I think the important thing here is that opposing PFs won’t kill this guy on the boards or offensively when he comes in. For the purpose of this I’ll say the closer he is to 10.0 R40 and 2.5 SB40, the better. As always, the higher the number, so much the better.
• As far as passing and turnovers, the main thing is not to be terrible. Since this is typically a bench position, being a low-mistake player is pretty important. It’s not necessary to be a great passer, but the prospect should show he’s both willing and somewhat able to pass the ball. As with every position, a high rate of turnovers or a low A/TO is a very bad sign.

I ended up going with James as the top guy, but I could see buying into the potential of Aminu. I just see James as more of a sure thing and I doubt the high end payoff Aminu offers is worth the gamble.

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I’m going to take a quick break from the forwards here to look at a couple of young big guys. These are a couple of freshmen centers whose most impressive skill is blocking shots. While Orton has been a good shot blocker, Whiteside has swatted away shots at a historic rate. I’ll look at each separately below, but first here’s a table showing the best freshmen shot blockers. I included players from major conferences who played over 500 minutes as freshmen only. The cutoff was 4.0 blocks per 40 minutes.

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The SF class of 2010 is a deep group, but doesn’t have much in the way of potential star power. There are several players who I feel would make a good late first, or second round draft pick, but few who look like lottery picks. The plight of these players is further complicated by the fact that there is a strong group of combo forwards also in the competition to catch the eye of scouts. So we have several SFs who have the potential to forge decent NBA careers, but few, if any stars or impact players.

Here is a quick recap on what to look for in SFs. This might be a little vague. That’s due to the nature of the position. Rather than always having a defined role, such as scorer, rebounder or distributor, a SF is often asked to do many different things. Therefore, the more skills any SF prospect can flash the better.

• Scoring: The best SFs have been at or over 20.0 P40 by the time they were seniors with an Adjusted FG pct of at least .530. In each case, the higher the better. The younger a player is, the more leeway is given here. This year there are no freshmen and only 3 sophs who would be considered prominent prospects. For that reason I’m going to hold most of the players pretty strictly to these guidelines. It isn’t necessary that a player can hit the 3-pointer, but it doesn’t hurt.
• Rebounding: A R40 of 7.0 seems to be the minimum here. Again, the higher the better.
• Passing and defense: For SFs I’ve been using their ASB40 as sort of a combined passing/defense rating. The number is simply combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. Historically it has been very important for a player to be over 5.0 ASB40.

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I’m not sure it would be accurate to call these guys wing players, because some actually played more inside. The thing they have in common is they’ll probably need to show they can play some SG, because they’re short or slight for a SF. Or because doing so would enhance their value.

I’ll get into what makes for a successful SF prospect a little more in the next post. For now let’s just say that with a weak class of SGs, teams with a need on the wing might be looking to players like this for help. Players are listed in order of preference.

Paul George, Fresno State: Right now George could be listed with either the SGs or SFs. I prefer him here, at SF because his size and skills suggest as much. That’s not to say he couldn’t excel at SG though. The best thing about George is his defensive numbers. Not too many sophomore SFs have topped 2.0 S40 and 1.0 B40 as George did this past season. Those that did have had a solid record of NBA success:

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This is the last of the SGs. Well start to move into the frontcourt next, before getting to the Walls, Turners and Favors of the draft. Things get better after this, because the strength of this draft is in the forwards and big guys this year. Henry and White are basically two players who didn’t fit with the other group of SGs, so they get lumped together. They do have similarities too. Both are young and have flashed some good potential. Neither has scored frequently enough over an entire season. Here are there numbers:

Xavier Henry, Kansas: This is a tough player to figure. As a freshman he fits comfortably into what some recent all-star SGs have done. Henry is ahead of where Jason Richardson, Michael Finley, Richard Hamilton, Latrell Sprewell and Reggie Miller were as freshmen. He also is well below where the likes of Todd Lichti, Rashad McCants and Joseph Forte were as freshmen. In other words at this point he could become just about anything as a player. I’ve compared him to numerous different groups of freshmen SGs and there really isn’t much that stands out. Best thing to do is look at his splits and try to make some sense out of it.

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