Hoops Analyst

A quick update on Round Two… 

-Celtics/Cavaliers:    A nice and shocking Game 2 win for Boston in Cleveland.  Could this augur an upset of a seven-game series?  Seems quite unlikely.  Yes, the Cavs could have issues with Rajon Rondo but he torched them just as much (if not more) in Game 1 and the Cavs still killed Boston.  The big difference in Game 2 was Rasheed Wallace.  The chances that he shoots 7-8 in another game seems highly unlikely.  The argument could be made that the Celts just need to hold home court to win the series, so another Rasheed burst isn’t needed.  But the Celts are a pretty mediocre home team (24-17) and were actually better on the road this year (26-15) and definitely need something out of the ordinary to hold serve. 

I see this situation very similar to the Nets/Heat match up in round two back in 2005-06.  The Heat (with Dwyane Wade and a still dangerous Shaquille O’Neal)were the favorites in that series but the Nets were given a puncher’s chance with Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson all playing very well.  The Nets stole Game 1 in Miami by 12 and then proceeded to get walloped the next four games.  The Celts now are probably better than the 2005-06 Nets (though not by much) but the Cavs are better than the old Heat were (though they did go on to win a title that season).  It was a nice effort but I just don’t see Boston winning more than one more game this series.

Read more →

Round One is under way and here are quick thoughts on the series so far: 

-Cavs/Bulls:  This series is basically over after LeBeron James tossed around the Bulls to take a 3-1 lead.  Even still, from the Bulls’ perspective, the series hasn’t been too bad.  Sure they have no shot of winning but they have played respectably for the most part and have gotten the one token win to build on for next year.  It appears that Vinny Del Negro is going to be fired because of internal issues (questions on his play calling and, more importantly, clashes with John Paxson).  It’s hard to make judgments on internal issues we are not privy to but based purely on his record on the court, he has been a solid enough coach. 

–Magic/Bobcats:  Like the Bulls, the Bobcats have been relatively competitive in their series against the heavily favored opponents.  Unlike the Bulls, they haven’t gotten a win yet.  Charlotte has been so good at home, they should be able to at least avoid the sweep.  The only reason this might not happen is because of the Bobcats’ main weakness (scoring) coincides nicely (or not so nicely depending upon your rooting interest) with Orlando’s strength (tough defense).  In the three games so far this series, Charlotte has an anemic 84 ppg and has not broken 90 points in a game yet (notably, Boris Diaw is averaging 40 mpg and has only 5.7 ppg). 

Read more →

In terms of possible playoff outcomes, the Western Conference is much more unsettled, and much more interesting, than the East.  While the Lakers are the defending champs and the team with the best record out West, things are very tight and basically any team has a shot of winning in the first round.  Before we get to the match ups, here’s a few fun facts: 

-The spread between the Lakers as the one seed and Oklahoma City at the eight seed is only seven games.  This is quite rare.  We went back to look at the typical spread in wins between one and eight in each conference since the expanded playoff format came into effect in 1983-84.  Here are the year-by-year spreads by conference:

Read more →

After slogging through one of the least suspenseful seasons in a long while, playoff time is finally here.  As thankful as we are that the regular season is done, the playoffs are fairly intriguing.  In the East, we’re all waiting for the outcome of Cavs-Magic, while out West it’s not clear what’s going to happen.  Let’s jump in with our annual playoff preview.  Today we’ll start in the East: 

1.    Cavaliers v. Bulls:   The interesting story coming into the series is the state of the Bulls.  Yes, it’s nice that they were able to rally to a playoff spot (thanks to Chris Bosh’s broken face).  But there is still an overall sense of chaos with the Bulls.  After all of Chicago’s changes the last few years, they are essentially the team they were before.  They dumped defensive whiz Scott Skiles in hopes of having a more balanced team.  They let Ben Gordon go and replaced him with Jannero Pargo.  The end result?  A 41-41 record and a team with a bad offensive efficiency (27th in the NBA) and a solid defense (11th).  Then you throw in the Vinny Del Negro-John Paxson rumored altercation and you wonder why Paxson hired Del Negro to begin with, considering that there have been apparently internal murmurs questioning Del Negro’s coaching ability since day one.    

Read more →