NBA Draft

NBA Draft Preview 2010: Senior Point Guards

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When an NCAA player lasts until his senior season without turning pro it typically is not a good sign for the player. It means the player either took this long to get his name on the map as a prospect or he simply hasn’t been good enough his first 3 seasons to get a guarantee in the first round. On the other hand, it shows he’s smart and mature enough to make a realistic assessment of his abilities and go back to college, which in most cases is probably the best option for such a player. So with the senior PGs we have a group of smart players with limited ability.

I’ve mentioned before that the 2010 class of PGs is somewhat less than impressive. John Wall is obviously a potential star, but it falls off pretty quickly after him. I’ve already weighed in on Lin, Bradley and Bledsoe, who are probably the next 3. Now I’d like to look at the best remaining seniors.

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NBA Draft

NBA Draft Preview 2010: Bradley and Bledsoe

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These two should be analyzed together, because they’re in similar situations. Both were highly-touted freshmen coming into this season. Bradley more so than Bledsoe, but both were well thought of. Both landed on talented rosters where they mixed a few moments of brilliance with spending their freshmen seasons taking a backseat to teammates ahead of them in the pecking order. Both are PG size, but have yet to prove they can play the position. Both came out after their freshman years anyways, hoping their athleticism will be enough to convince some team their ordinary numbers aren’t a true reflection of their ability. Both are projected to go in the 20-30 range of round one. The one positive for both players is the fact that the PG crop is very thin this year and that’s always a good thing for marginal prospects. Here are their numbers:

Player

2 pt pct

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40
Eric Bledsoe

.516

.383

14.2

3.6

1.0

6.0
Avery Bradley

.457

.375

14.7

2.6

1.4

5.9

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NBA Draft

NBA Draft Preview 2010: Jeremy Lin, G Harvard

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Any team looking to find a starting PG in the 2010 NBA draft had best win the lottery and get the top pick. A year after the legendary PG draft of 2009, the pickings for playmakers are going to be thin. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a player or two who surprise the experts though.

The best candidate to pull off such a surprise might be Harvard’s Jeremy Lin. The reason is two numbers Lin posted, 2-point FG pct and RSB40. Lin was at .598 and 9.7. This is impressive on both counts. These numbers show NBA athleticism better than any other, because a high score in both shows dominance at the college level on both ends of the court. Here is a list of recent college PGs who topped .540 and 9.0:

Player

2 pt pct.

3 pt pct

P40

A40

A/TO

RSB40
Andre Miller

.600

.333

18.0

6.6

2.1

10.2
Penny Hardaway

.583

.332

24.4

6.8

1.9

13.0
Steve Francis

.580

.388

22.2

5.8

1.5

9.8
Gary Payton

.569

.333

27.3

8.6

2.2

9.1
Allen Iverson

.546

.366

30.5

5.7

1.2

9.3
Jason Kidd

.545

.362

19.0

10.3

2.1

11.8
Rajon Rondo

.540

.273

14.4

6.3

2.1

10.7
Greg Grant

.544

.485

26.3

6.3

1.7

9.4
Bobby Dixon

.548

.380

20.7

7.7

2.0

9.8
George Hill

.580

.450

24.0

4.8

1.5

10.0
Jeremy Lin

.598

.341

20.2

5.5

1.4

9.7

Bobby Dixon, you ask? He played at Troy from 2003-06. Dixon was listed at 5’10” and 160 his senior year and I’m guessing he was deemed too small. He’s played in France and Italy going on his 4th year now and seems to be getting plenty of PT. I don’t think I need to say too much to sell the rest of the group.

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Playoff Thoughts

Playoff Thoughts

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A quick update on Round Two… 

-Celtics/Cavaliers:    A nice and shocking Game 2 win for Boston in Cleveland.  Could this augur an upset of a seven-game series?  Seems quite unlikely.  Yes, the Cavs could have issues with Rajon Rondo but he torched them just as much (if not more) in Game 1 and the Cavs still killed Boston.  The big difference in Game 2 was Rasheed Wallace.  The chances that he shoots 7-8 in another game seems highly unlikely.  The argument could be made that the Celts just need to hold home court to win the series, so another Rasheed burst isn’t needed.  But the Celts are a pretty mediocre home team (24-17) and were actually better on the road this year (26-15) and definitely need something out of the ordinary to hold serve. 

I see this situation very similar to the Nets/Heat match up in round two back in 2005-06.  The Heat (with Dwyane Wade and a still dangerous Shaquille O’Neal)were the favorites in that series but the Nets were given a puncher’s chance with Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson all playing very well.  The Nets stole Game 1 in Miami by 12 and then proceeded to get walloped the next four games.  The Celts now are probably better than the 2005-06 Nets (though not by much) but the Cavs are better than the old Heat were (though they did go on to win a title that season).  It was a nice effort but I just don’t see Boston winning more than one more game this series.

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Uncategorized

Most Improved, A Review

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Is there anything sillier than the NBA Most Improved Award?  The parameters of the award are confusing and the application is often incorrectly applied, no matter which standard most people would reasonably apply.  Here are the possible standards of “improvement”: 

-Good young player steadily improving

-Player with no previous expectations or who was considered a good player but becomes good out of nowhere

-Established player in his prime going from good to very good (i.e. peak season)

-Player who improves merely by getting more minutes

-A player who was considered a prospect craps out and then later becomes good 

These are rough approximations of standards for the award and they can overlap but they fairly encompass most scenarios.  I thought we could look back at the award’s history and see what value, if any, we can distill from this review.  The award itself came into to existence in 1985-86.  Previously, the NBA had created a “Comeback Player of the Year” but had abandoned the idea after a few years, allegedly because the NBA was tired of giving the award to players who had comeback from substance abuse.  Before we get to the Most Improved Award, let’s review the old Comeback Award to see if the award did yield potentially embarrassing results:

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Playoff Thoughts

Playoff Thoughts

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Round One is under way and here are quick thoughts on the series so far: 

-Cavs/Bulls:  This series is basically over after LeBeron James tossed around the Bulls to take a 3-1 lead.  Even still, from the Bulls’ perspective, the series hasn’t been too bad.  Sure they have no shot of winning but they have played respectably for the most part and have gotten the one token win to build on for next year.  It appears that Vinny Del Negro is going to be fired because of internal issues (questions on his play calling and, more importantly, clashes with John Paxson).  It’s hard to make judgments on internal issues we are not privy to but based purely on his record on the court, he has been a solid enough coach. 

–Magic/Bobcats:  Like the Bulls, the Bobcats have been relatively competitive in their series against the heavily favored opponents.  Unlike the Bulls, they haven’t gotten a win yet.  Charlotte has been so good at home, they should be able to at least avoid the sweep.  The only reason this might not happen is because of the Bobcats’ main weakness (scoring) coincides nicely (or not so nicely depending upon your rooting interest) with Orlando’s strength (tough defense).  In the three games so far this series, Charlotte has an anemic 84 ppg and has not broken 90 points in a game yet (notably, Boris Diaw is averaging 40 mpg and has only 5.7 ppg). 

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