Playoff Thoughts

NBA Playoffs Preview: Western Conference

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In terms of possible playoff outcomes, the Western Conference is much more unsettled, and much more interesting, than the East.  While the Lakers are the defending champs and the team with the best record out West, things are very tight and basically any team has a shot of winning in the first round.  Before we get to the match ups, here’s a few fun facts: 

-The spread between the Lakers as the one seed and Oklahoma City at the eight seed is only seven games.  This is quite rare.  We went back to look at the typical spread in wins between one and eight in each conference since the expanded playoff format came into effect in 1983-84.  Here are the year-by-year spreads by conference:

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Playoff Thoughts

NBA Playoffs Preview: Eastern Conference

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After slogging through one of the least suspenseful seasons in a long while, playoff time is finally here.  As thankful as we are that the regular season is done, the playoffs are fairly intriguing.  In the East, we’re all waiting for the outcome of Cavs-Magic, while out West it’s not clear what’s going to happen.  Let’s jump in with our annual playoff preview.  Today we’ll start in the East: 

1.    Cavaliers v. Bulls:   The interesting story coming into the series is the state of the Bulls.  Yes, it’s nice that they were able to rally to a playoff spot (thanks to Chris Bosh’s broken face).  But there is still an overall sense of chaos with the Bulls.  After all of Chicago’s changes the last few years, they are essentially the team they were before.  They dumped defensive whiz Scott Skiles in hopes of having a more balanced team.  They let Ben Gordon go and replaced him with Jannero Pargo.  The end result?  A 41-41 record and a team with a bad offensive efficiency (27th in the NBA) and a solid defense (11th).  Then you throw in the Vinny Del Negro-John Paxson rumored altercation and you wonder why Paxson hired Del Negro to begin with, considering that there have been apparently internal murmurs questioning Del Negro’s coaching ability since day one.    

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NBA Draft

NBA Draft 2010: Post-Tournament Update

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This will be the last update until I do the draft previews. I doubt things will change much, but I’ll go much deeper with the analysis in those. Right now I’m just skimming the stats. Not a whole lot has changed in the past month. There are still 4 players who stand above the crowd. After that there are about 6 players who look like they’ll be decent rotation players. Finally there are about 15-20 who offer enough intrigue and potential that they’d be a worthwhile pick after about #20. That says the draft is thin after the top 10 and there is going to be some reaching. This follows 3 deep drafts, meaning some scouting time and resources should be spent looking at players who may have fallen through the cracks during the last few drafts. I doubt we’ll see as many 2nd round and undrafted surprises from this draft because it is so shallow. Forwards remain the strength of this draft, with the SFs being a particularly deep group. These rankings are based on everything else being equal, as always. That basically means the question I’m asking when ranking these players is: Which player would I select if I were starting an NBA team?

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FAQs

The DJ FAQ

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This article was originally written in February 2007, right after Dennis Johnson passed away.  It examined his career and Hall of Fame prospects.  I was lukewarm on DJ as a Hall of Famer but have since embraced the idea, less because I think Johnson was better than I remembered and more because I frankly think a larger Hall of Fame is better policy.  In any event, here’s a look at the DJ, an interesting person and a very good player… 

Unfortunately, the impetus to look back at player’s career usually comes at a final point, retirement or death.  In the case of Dennis Johnson, his untimely passing has inspired plenty of writers to eulogize a great NBA player.  I thought I’d look back at his career and hopefully find a few more nuggets of information that haven’t been touched upon yet. 

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Quick Thoughts

Quick Thoughts

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1.    Bulls/Raptors Race:    As we mercifully close in on the playoffs, there are very few questions left to be answered.  Except for seeding issues, the playoffs teams are virtually set.  The only race is the not so close race between the Bulls and the Raptors for the eight seed in the East.  The Raptors lead the race by 1.5 games (Toronto is 37-37 with 8 games left to play, while the Bulls are 36-39 with 7 games left).  The Raptors hold the tie breaker and ESPN’s playoff odds give the Bulls roughly a 10% shot of catching Toronto.  

The Bulls aren’t looking good but might their odds be a little better than 10%?  The playoff odds machine looks at past history for calculating the likelihood of future outcomes.  At this point in the season, however, the good teams may be resting the stars and the bad teams could be in outright tank mode.  So, let’s look a little closer and see what the teams have going forward to see if there is more hope for the Bulls:

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Quick Thoughts

Quick Thoughts

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1.    Cinderella Can Do It?:    With March Madness in full effect and the NBA in something of a slow wind down to the playoffs, I thought we’d take a step back and do a little more NCAA talk.  Specifically, all of our fascination with the Cinderella Squads, i.e. the small fries who upset major programs and their potential to get to a Final Four.  There are quite a few this year and I thought we could take a look at the true underdogs, the teams seeded 11 or higher, to track their history of success (technically the 9 and 10 seeds are also underdogs but the differences between them and their first round opponents are typically a coin flip).  Since the tournament has gone to 64 teams in 1984-85, the low seeds have had varying success.  Each year, the tournament has had 24 team in the 11-16 seed range.  Here’s how many of these teams got past round one (we’ll also put any teams in parentheses that got past the second round): 

1984-85:  2 (Kentucky made Sweet 16)

1985-86:  4 (DePaul, Cleveland State, and LSU made Sweet 16)

1986-87:  4 (Wyoming made Sweet 16)

1987-88:  3 (Richmond and Rhode Island made Sweet 16)

1988-89:  6 (Minnesota made Sweet 16)

1989-90:  4 (Ball State made Sweet 16; Loyola Marymount made the Elite Eight)

1990-91:  6 (Connecticut and Eastern Michigan made Sweet 16)

1991-92:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

1992-93:  4 (George Washington made Sweet 16)

1993-94:  3 (Tulsa made Sweet 16)

1994-95:  5 (No low seeds made the second round)

1995-96:  4 (Arkansas made Sweet 16)

1996-97:  3 (Tennessee-Chattanooga made Sweet 16)

1997-98:  5 (Washington and Valparaiso made Sweet 16)

1998-99:  5 (Missouri State made Sweet 16)

1999-00:  1 (No low seeds made the second round)

2000-01:  7 (Gonzaga made Sweet 16; Temple made the Elite Eight)

2001-02:  6 (Southern Illinois made Sweet 16; Missouri made Elite Eight)

2002-03:  3 (Butler made Sweet 16)

2003-04:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

2004-05:  4 (Wisconsin-Milwaukee made Sweet 16)

2005-06:  6 (Bradley made Sweet 16; George Mason made the Final Four)

2006-07:  2 (No low seeds made the second round)

2007-08:  5 (Villanova and Western Kentucky made Sweet 16)

2008-09:  5 (Arizona made Sweet 16) 

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