NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update

Something I’ve been wondering about with the 2010 draft is what affect the potential lockout and new CBA will have on the early entrants. If we go by the theory that players will enter the draft when it is to their financial benefit to do so, we could see quite a few early entrants in 2010. The reason is this is the final season that rookies will get contracts based on the current CBA. The group drafted in 2011 and beyond will likely be looking at less lucrative contracts than previous rookie classes. This reality and the possibility that any rookie entering the league through the 2011 draft could spend most or all of the season locked out and unpaid, could send a wave of prospects into the 2010 draft. In addition to the usual suspects, young players who normally would have returned for their soph seasons looking to star for a year, then go pro–like John Henson or Eric Bledsoe–might decide to make the jump a year early. But that’s just speculation.

The 2010 draft is shaping up as very top heavy. The top 4 players are all very good and very close in potential. Wall has been the consensus top guy all year, but I could see any one of the top 4 eventually emerging as the top guy. After that are a few sleepers and role players, but the depth of the past few drafts isn’t here. There won’t be many bargains found in round 2 this year. Another thing to know here is for many of these players there are only a few games remaining, so this is pretty much it for them. I’ll be doing deeper analysis on all of them who enter the draft, but for most it is unlikely their place will change much. Continue reading NBA Draft 2010: Prospect Update…

Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 2

Memphis Grizzlies 

2/19    Traded a protected first-round pick to Utah for Ronnie Brewer 

The Grizz were able to nab Brewer for little because of the Jazz’s luxury tax situation.  Unfortunately, Brewer won’t help much for the playoff run since he has promptly tore his hamstring.  Going forward, however, he is a nice defender but might have the ugliest jumper for a shooting guard/small forward I’ve seen in recent years.  On Memphis, he can surely help because they don’t need scorers and they do need defenders.  There is some implication that he is the fallback position if Memphis decide not to pay Rudy Gay as a free agent this summer.  Long term, Brewer’s lack of scoring will probably relegate him to role player status but for now he is not a bad hedge. Continue reading Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 2…

Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 1

Boston Celtics 

2/19    Traded Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, and a future conditional second-round pick to New York for Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry 

As Boston tries to hold onto contender status, getting Nate for Eddie House is a clear upgrade.  Robinson is a better player in nearly every facet of the game and is even shooting threes about as well as House is this year. The net gain is not huge and doesn’t change Boston’s larger age/injury issues that seem to be conspiring to end their title contender status.  Still, Robinson can score in many ways and Boston’s offense needs points pretty badly (currently 13th in offensive efficiency).  

On a completely side note, Robinson’s trade probably hurts his value going into free agency.  Despite all of Robinson’s fights with Mike D’Antoni, the Knicks were offering Robinson plenty of shots and minutes.  Instead, Robinson’s final two months will make him look like a 20-minute per game role player on a slow paced grind offense (barring injury to Ray Allen).  I’m sure Robinson would rather experience the playoffs than chuck away on a bad Knicks team but this drawback does remind us that self-interested decisions by NBA players aren’t always crazy because this trade may have a monetary cost for Robinson. Continue reading Transactions: 2/3-2/26 Part 1…

Monta Ellis and PT Examined

A lot has been made in the NBA stat analysis community that Monta Ellis is a bit overrated.  Ellis’ rate states are quite gaudy.  He has 25.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, and 4.2 rpg.  On the other side, Ellis is playing 41.5 mpg and has a rather pedestrian 16.9 PER based on his mediocre shooting, mediocre free throw rate (compared to touches), below-average three point shooting (.327%), and his high turnover rate (3.6 TOs per-36 minutes).   Of course it takes a degree of talent to play 41.5 mpg to begin with but you can put me firmly in the camp of those who believe Ellis to be a decent player. 

What interests me about Ellis, however, is not the debate of his worth but how he is absorbing minutes like a sponge.  Ellis is currently second in the NBA in mpg behind Gerald Wallace, who is playing 42 mpg.  What should we be expecting from our NBA players?  Well, 42 mpg is a lot for an NBA players.  There are currently 100 players who have logged a season of 42 mpg or more (minimum of 60 games played).  Going back to the beginning, logging tons of minutes was a 1960s concept. Here is a distribution of the 42 MPG club by decade: Continue reading Monta Ellis and PT Examined…

Ty Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge Revisited

These two players will always be linked and compared. They play the same position, came into the league through the same draft and were dealt for each other the night of that draft. While Aldridge was chosen before Thomas, most stat guys like me felt Thomas had the much better future at the time. This was my bottom line opinions of the two players going into the draft: 

Thomas: The draft is weak, but I believe Tyrus Thomas is the best player available and the one player who has the best chance to become a perennial all-star. 

Aldridge: But right now Aldridge is just a good college player who isn’t producing enough on the court that I’d consider him a good NBA prospect. Right now he looks like a player who will spend his career backing up at PF and center around the league. Continue reading Ty Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge Revisited…

About Hoops Analyst:

Hoops Analyst is the premier destination for in-depth basketball analysis, insight, and commentary.