The success 2013 Rookie-of-the-Year Damian Lillard had coming into the NBA out of Weber State has put more of a spotlight on small college guards. Lillard in 2012 marked the 5th consecutive year a small college guard has had a major impact. Starting with the 2008 draft class George Hill, Stephen Curry, Jeremy Lin and Norris Cole all came into the league from a small college and have had a big impact. While I generally loathe questions like: “Who will be this year’s Damian Lillard?” the fact that there have been 5 consecutive years of Damian Lillards in the draft (the 5th year ironically enough producing the real Damian Lillard) means that this a legitimate question for draft geeks and NBA personnel people to be asking.
Lillard was coming off a year that statistically wasn’t all that impressive by prospect standards. Most glaring was he had never topped 5.0 A40 in any of his 4 seasons at Weber State. This suggested he would have difficulty making the transition to NBA PG. Not only did he easily make the transition from small college scorer to NBA PG, he did so resoundingly as the Rookie-of-the-year. With Lillard’s surprising success as an NBA PG now in the mix, small college combos have to be taken more seriously as potential NBA PGs.
The chart below shows successful small college PGs and combos of recent years compared with the 4 guards I’ll be looking at n this piece–CJ McCollum, Nate Wolters, Isaiah Canaan and Ray McCallum.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Terry Porter |
575 |
n/a |
22.7 |
5.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
11.3 |
| Stephen Curry |
519 |
387 |
33.0 |
6.4 |
2.9 |
1.5 |
8.3 |
| George Hill |
580 |
450 |
23.3 |
4.7 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
9.7 |
| Derek Fisher |
430 |
383 |
16.1 |
5.7 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
7.9 |
| Antonio Daniels |
576 |
433 |
26.4 |
7.4 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
| Lindsey Hunter |
463 |
341 |
31.5 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
7.6 |
| Rodney Stuckey |
539 |
372 |
29.3 |
5.0 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
8.8 |
| Dee Brown |
521 |
375 |
21.3 |
5.7 |
3.4 |
1.8 |
11.3 |
| Speedy Claxton |
500 |
381 |
25.9 |
6.8 |
3.8 |
1.4 |
10.1 |
| Jose Barea |
485 |
291 |
25.1 |
10.0 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
6.8 |
| Jeremy Lin |
598 |
341 |
20.2 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
1.4 |
9.7 |
| Norris Cole |
473 |
342 |
24.4 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
9.2 |
| Damian Lillard |
517 |
409 |
28.4 |
4.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
7.8 |
| CJ McCollum |
496 |
532 |
32.0 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
8.9 |
| Nate Wolters |
539 |
379 |
24.1 |
6.3 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
8.0 |
| Isaiah Canaan |
494 |
370 |
23.9 |
4.7 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
5.7 |
| Ray McCallum |
562 |
323 |
19.8 |
4.7 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
8.1 |
Players who successfully made the jump from small college to the NBA almost always scored frequently as college players and usually did so efficiently. Derek Fisher was the only exception and his outsized intangibles are a skill that’s far too vague for any spreadsheet to measure. A good number of this group were dominant ball hawks and posted good overall defensive numbers. The assist numbers were a little more inconsistent. This is a difference between small college and major college guards. My theory is small college PGs are often the best scoring option on their team and the fact that they take the shot themselves so often keeps their A40 lower. Whatever the reason, I should probably lower the A40 benchmark for small college PG prospects. Players are listed in rough order of preference, all other things being equal.
Nate Wolters, South Dakota State: Wolters is the best passer in this group and is really more of a PG than a combo. I just thought he was better evaluated here, because he’s probably a better prospect than the rest of the lesser PGs and he’s definitely one of the top small college players out there. As a PG prospect he hits all the necessary benchmarks. That’s a good thing, but I prefer that a small college prospect show a little more dominance than he has. I like small college players who have at least one eye-popping number in his statistical profile, like a 30+ P40, 9+ A40, 3+ S40 or 10+ RSB40. Wolters has been more of a player who meets all the minimum requirements for successful NBA PGs. While that sounds more boring than “a dominator”, it does make him a decent prospect to become an NBA PG. The only small college player I can find who didn’t make the NBA after topping .500 2PP, 24.0 P40, 6.0 A40 and 7.0 RSB40 is David Holston, a 5’7” player from Chicago State a few years ago. But there have only been a couple of others in this group, Speedy Claxton and Stephen Curry, so we’re dealing with a very small sample size here. Both players were much more dominant on this level than Wolters.
Wolters as a prospect is somewhere in that grey area. I can’t dismiss him because of any specific statistical red flag. He has NBA size at 6’4” and his team had a lot of success with him as the lead Jackrabbit, making the tournament his last two seasons. Looking at all the stats and information, one would have to conclude that Wolters is a better prospect than Lillard was at this time last year. While that might make him the most likely answer to the “Who is the Damian Lillard of 2013?” question, it doesn’t mean he’ll follow Lillard’s path and dramatically improve in his rookie year. He still lacks a dominant skill, like Curry’s scoring and steals or Hill’s efficiency. We’ll need another decade to determine if he has Fisher’s outlier intangibles. This makes Wolters a player to start thinking about somewhere around mid-late first round.
CJ MCollum, Lehigh: McCollum’s status as a prospect has taken a strange and happy turn during his senior season. He was limited to 12 games when an injury cut his season short in early January. His numbers in the above chart are for those 12 games. In the time since the injury his stock has only gone up. The mocks had him as a mid-first rounder at the time of the injury, but he has shot into the top 10 since. Injured players generally see their stock drop.
With McCullom a look at his entire career might be more helpful since the senior season lasted only 12 games and 372 minutes. Here are McCollum’s career numbers:
|
CJ McCollum |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
433 |
421 |
22.9 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
7.9 |
| Sophomore |
435 |
315 |
23.2 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
0.8 |
9.6 |
| Junior |
489 |
341 |
25.9 |
4.2 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
11.5 |
| Senior |
485 |
516 |
32.0 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
8.9 |
Looking at these stats, the first thing jumps out is he only had one year, his junior year, where he passed well enough to think he could play NBA PG. That year he was only a marginally good passer. His 4.2 A40 is extremely low for a PG prospect. The benchmarks are 5.0 A40 and 1.4 A/TO for successful PGs. The only time McCollum topped either of these was his 1.5 A/TO his junior year. The caveat here would be that small college passing stats can be a little tricky, as Damian Lillard proved last year. But Lillard’s success doesn’t mean McCollum will follow the same path. It’s also worth noting that Lillard had much better numbers than McCollum, both as a passer and a scorer.
McCollum’s case as a SG is also shaky. The big issue is that his 2-point pct. has never topped .500 in any of his 4 college seasons. Recent lottery busts Harold Miner, Troy Bell, Trajan Langdon, Courtney Alexander, Shawn Respert and Jimmer Fredette all came into the draft with a 2PP under .500. While this is definitely a red flag, it isn’t uncommon for college SGs to make a successful jump to the NBA with a sub-.500 2PP. Here is a list of such players.
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
S40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
| Joe Johnson |
476 |
443 |
19.6 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
11.4 |
| Richard Hamilton |
496 |
347 |
26.8 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
7.7 |
| Michael Redd |
474 |
315 |
20.6 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
9.5 |
| Ben Gordon |
434 |
433 |
21.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
7.3 |
| Klay Thompson |
466 |
398 |
24.9 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
9.1 |
| CJ McCollum |
496 |
532 |
32.0 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
8.9 |
These are players who never topped .500 in any season during their college careers. What McCollum has in common with this group is he’s a good rebounder for a guard. The similarities end there. The other 5 were all major college players who entered the draft before their senior seasons. All except Gordon are taller than McCollum. Gordon was the only one who could have been considered a PG prospect coming in and his star has faded quite a bit after coming into the league with a bang. It’s hard to make a case for McCollum as a SG prospect based on this list. But it does show that his sub-.500 2PP, while definitely a red flag, is hardly a kiss of death for a prospect.
So there are serious questions about McCollum as either a PG or SG. He hasn’t consistently demonstrated he has the passing skills to run the point and his efficiency looks too weak to be an effective NBA SG. What he does have going for him is strong defensive numbers. His RSB40 has been well over 8.0 for 3 consecutive years now, topping out at a stellar 11.6 last year. He also topped 3.0 S40 as a junior, a dominant number that suggests he has more than enough athleticism to make some sort of impact. He might have what it takes to become one of those sniper/defenders that are in vogue now as wing players. He’d have to work on his offense some to become such a player. His 3-point shot has been inconsistent, but overall he’s been decent, with a career mark of .377 on 576 attempts.
CJ McCollum rates as an NBA role player at best. I don’t see that he’s a bust on the level of Jimmer Fredette. He’s a much better prospect than that. Guards have had an easier time coming into the league recently, so it wouldn’t completely surprise me if outdoes my projection for him. That would depend on his landing in the right situation as much as anything though. The bottom line though is NBA guards are not in short supply, so using a lottery pick on one with as many red flags as McCollum just isn’t a good use of a pick. I would start considering him after #20 at the earliest. McCullom and Wolters are basically even. I give Wolters a slight edge because of his PG abilities, but McCullom is probably a better option for teams looking for depth.
Ray McCallum, Detroit: McCallum has more overall skill than Canaan, but some might prefer Canaan because of his 3-point prowess. McCallum shows some promise as a scorer, passer and defender, but just isn’t there yet. His P40 is below 20.0 which makes him a weak combo prospect. His A40 has been under 5.0 for 2 consecutive years, which has always been a negative for PG prospects. His inability to consistently hit a 3-pointer is also a huge negative. What makes McCallum intriguing is he’s very efficient inside the arc, with consecutive years over 55% on 2-pointers. He also has a low turnover rate and has consistently posted a 7+ RSB40. All these things show he has NBA-level athleticism. That makes him a project with decent upside. Ray McCallum isn’t likely to have much of an NBA career, but he has shown enough to be worth a late round 2 draft pick.
Isaiah Canaan, Murray State: The only reason Canaan might make the league is he’s a pretty good gunner. The .370 mark from this year is a career low. He hit marks of .482, .403 and .456 in his 3 previous seasons, so this guy can fill it up from behind the arc. That’s about all there is to like about him though. Like McCollum he can’t seem to hit over .500 from inside the arc. His defense would have to be considered a weakness. His passing numbers are too weak to think he can handle the NBA point. He’s only 6’ if measured with shoes on. Basically he’s a mad bomber. He could have an impact as a gunner, but his other skills aren’t strong enough to think he’s anything more than that.