Like the other perimeter positions in the 2014 draft this is a strong class of PGs. There are potential stars, likely journeymen and several players who are worth a look and could succeed should they work hard and have other factors play out right. Here are the numbers for each college player:
|
PG Prospects |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
A/TO |
| Marcus Smart |
514 |
299 |
21.1 |
5.6 |
3.4 |
11.0 |
1.8 |
| Elfrid Payton |
541 |
259 |
20.1 |
6.2 |
2.4 |
9.3 |
1.6 |
| Tyler Ennis |
429 |
353 |
14.9 |
6.3 |
2.4 |
6.5 |
3.2 |
| Russ Smith |
517 |
387 |
24.1 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
7.2 |
1.6 |
| Shabazz Napier |
448 |
405 |
20.9 |
5.7 |
2.1 |
9.3 |
1.7 |
| DeAndre Kane |
570 |
346 |
18.9 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
9.4 |
2.1 |
| Nick Johnson |
469 |
367 |
19.9 |
3.4 |
1.4 |
7.2 |
1.7 |
| Aaron Craft |
522 |
302 |
11.5 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
7.3 |
1.8 |
| Kendrick Perry |
610 |
356 |
23.1 |
4.8 |
2.6 |
7.4 |
2.3 |
| Semaj Christon |
491 |
388 |
19.3 |
4.7 |
1.5 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
| Jahii Carson |
443 |
391 |
20.8 |
5.2 |
0.8 |
5.4 |
1.3 |
| Keith Appling |
495 |
362 |
14.5 |
5.8 |
1.5 |
6.0 |
2.1 |
| Dantrell Thomas |
546 |
378 |
21.4 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
9.9 |
1.4 |
| Chaz Williams |
427 |
362 |
17.2 |
7.6 |
1.7 |
5.0 |
2.0 |
Players are ranked in order of how I would draft them, all other things being equal.
1. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
2. Dante Exum, Australia: I’ll link to the piece I did earlier in the year on Exum. There have been no new stats since then, so this still applies. He remains something of a mystery man, but everything I’ve seen on him looks impressive. Because no one is sure whether he’s a PG or SG right now, I’ll rank him where he’d be more valuable. He’d be near the top of the SG rankings too.
3. Elfrid Payton, Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse: The number that really stands out for Ennis is his 3.2 A/TO ratio. An A/TO this high is unprecedented for a freshman, at least the players in my database. To try and get a look at what this might mean, here’s freshmen PGs from the past several seasons who have topped 2.4 A/TO.
|
PG Prospect |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
a/to |
RSB40 |
| Deron Williams |
485 |
354 |
9.3 |
6.7 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
| Ty Lawson |
564 |
356 |
15.2 |
8.3 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
6.7 |
| Mike Conley Jr |
579 |
304 |
14.3 |
7.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
7.5 |
| Eric Maynor |
430 |
390 |
16.0 |
7.4 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
6.7 |
| Dee Brown |
556 |
336 |
14.4 |
5.9 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
6.6 |
| Chris Thomas |
416 |
360 |
16.5 |
7.9 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
6.3 |
| Drew Lavender |
440 |
407 |
14.0 |
5.8 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
4.9 |
| Drew Neitzel |
417 |
398 |
17.6 |
5.1 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
| Tyler Ennis |
429 |
353 |
14.9 |
6.3 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
6.5 |
Starting this year I’m going to try and keep college players from the 80s out of such analyses. It won’t be easy, especially when I get to the big guys. But things have changed a lot and I’d like to keep things more current. If anyone cares, Gary Payton and Chris Corchiani were the two players who made this list from that decade. What we have here are 3 pretty good players in Williams, Lawson and Conley. Beyond them is Maynor, who was a decent backup for a few years and a few players who never quite made it. Of the ones who didn’t make it, the 2 Drews didn’t look much like prospects from the start due to the low RSB40 and S40. Brown and Thomas didn’t improve much on promising freshman years and ended up in Europe. Deron Williams, the best player in this bunch, is very much an outlier among prospects. I doubt there has ever been a prospect who has outplayed his college stats as much as Williams has.
Ennis is a tough player to rate with this group. He doesn’t have the super efficiency of both Conley and Lawson, so I have to place him at least a notch below those two, who are borderline all-stars. Ennis is clearly superior to the 2 Drews at this point, as he has much better defensive and passing numbers. The most similar player at this point would be Eric Maynor. Maynor showed some promise early in his career, but has faded since.
While I feel he’ll probably be better than Maynor, because of this comp, I see Ennis as something of a risk in the lottery. I still would draft him ahead of any college PG other than Smart or Payton because of his youth and upside. Even though he’s a tad older than a typical freshman, he’ll turn 20 this August, he’s still just a freshman. His positives include the low turnover rate, a high steals rate and being a top 30 prospect coming out of high school. But if taken too high there’s a good chance he’ll disappoint.
5. Russ Smith, Louisville: Smith is an interesting prospect who is so impressive in some ways that I have to keep reminding myself that he’s still a 23 year-old, 6’0” senior. Here is a look at how his career has gone:
|
Russ Smith |
Min |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
RSB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
96 |
292 |
389 |
14.4 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
8.4 |
1.1 |
| Sophomore |
837 |
379 |
306 |
21.3 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
8.7 |
0.8 |
| Junior |
1211 |
458 |
328 |
24.1 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
7.1 |
1.0 |
| Senior |
1083 |
517 |
387 |
24.1 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
7.2 |
1.6 |
There are a lot of things to like about Smith just from looking at these numbers. He improved his efficiency every year to the point where he was one of the most potent scoring PGs in the nation as a senior. His S40 has always been ridiculously high. His RSB40 has always been over 7.0. After 2 seasons playing SG next to Payton Siva, he took over the point as a senior and did a stellar job.
I also like the fact that he came back so strongly from a somewhat awkward episode after the championship game last year when his father announced to the world that he would enter the 2013 draft, an endeavor that didn’t go so well. Whenever a player improves his game exactly where he needs to, as Smith did as a senior, I take it as a very good sign.
I don’t want to go too overboard though. Smith has a few negatives. He is small. At 6’0” he’s a likely reserve. At 23 he’s old for a senior and that makes his stellar season a tad less impressive. Those are big negatives, but Smith is still a prospect worth a late first round look. He plays good defense. He can handle the point. He does bring a gunner’s mentality. All these things make for a player who is potentially very valuable coming off an NBA bench.
6. Shabazz Napier, Connecticut: The obvious comp for Napier is Kemba Walker. Both are smallish UConn PGs. Both led an unlikely NCAA championship team on a great run. Even though these are a couple of superficial comps, the stats also show similar players:
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
a/to |
RSB40 |
| Walker Freshman |
522 |
271 |
13.6 |
4.4 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
7.5 |
| Walker Sophomore |
431 |
345 |
16.7 |
5.7 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
7.6 |
| Walker Junior |
469 |
331 |
25.0 |
4.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
7.8 |
| Napier Freshman |
423 |
331 |
13.4 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
7.0 |
| Napier Sophomore |
418 |
355 |
15.0 |
6.7 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
6.3 |
| Napier Junior |
488 |
398 |
17.2 |
4.8 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
7.0 |
| Napier Senior |
448 |
405 |
20.8 |
5.6 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
9.3 |
Both are inefficient scorers with solid defensive numbers. Both have decent passing numbers. The only red flag for both players would be the 2PP being consistently below .500.
Kemba Walker has had a good start to his career, but he also landed in a great situation. The Bobcats were a historically bad team that really needed NBA-level players. Kemba came in and did a solid job at the point and was an integral piece in the team crashing the playoffs this year. I still have my doubts whether he’s a long term answer as a starting PG on a contender though.
That Walker has exceeded expectations and become a solid NBA PG doesn’t mean Napier will do the same, despite their similarities. But his success can’t be easily dismissed when evaluating Napier. Just looking at the numbers Napier is a decent prospect who should be a bubble first rounder without taking Walker’s success into account. His defensive numbers have gone from decent to strong. He’s a solid passer. The offense is inefficient, but he’s a .400 shooter from behind the arc and that in itself makes him a valuable bench player. The fact that he led a team to an NCAA championship against a much stronger field than the one Kemba faced also ticks his stock up a few points.
Shabazz Napier is very unlikely to be a star in the NBA. I do see his high end as similar to Kemba Walker. He’ll be something short of a starting NBA PG, but a player good enough to give solid minutes off the bench, be a spot starter on a contender and a full-time starter on a weaker team.
7. DeAndre Kane, Iowa State: Just looking at the numbers from this year, DeAndre Kane looks like a pretty strong prospect. He’s big at 6’4” and long with a 6’8” wingspan. He scored often and efficiently this year, hitting .511 inside the arc and .398 outside while getting to the line almost 7 times per game. He passes well and was one of the best rebounding guards in the nation.
From the tone of the first paragraph and the fact that he’s ranked 7th, you know that there’s a “but” coming. Actually there are 2. The first is he’ll be 25 by draft day. That’s older than accomplished NBA PGs John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and Kemba Walker. The other “but” is his 3 years spent leading Marshall’s Thundering Herd, before the transfer to ISU, were fairly ordinary. Here are the numbers:
|
DeAndre Kane |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
A40 |
S40 |
a/to |
RSB40 |
| Freshman |
481 |
323 |
18.7 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
6.8 |
| Sophomore |
465 |
250 |
19.1 |
4.0 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
8.3 |
| Junior |
475 |
250 |
15.4 |
7.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
6.6 |
| Senior |
511 |
398 |
18.0 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
9.4 |
After three inefficient and erratic years at Marshall, Kane transferred to Iowa State and became the best 24 year-old in college basketball. The fact that he put in such a good year regardless of his age is impressive. Considering his size/length and the fact that he did have one of the better years among PGs makes him something of a prospect.
8. Nick Johnson, Arizona: I’m not sure what it was that made Nick Johnson an intriguing prospect to me at one point. He has always been an inefficient scorer. He has never posted a P40 higher than 20.0, which has always been important for combo guards. He has never posted an A40 over 5.0. He’s had only one year where any of his defensive numbers could be called dominant, that being his 2.5 S40 his sophomore season.
The positive is he was the leading scorer on a very good college team. He has shown the ability to play either guard position. While his numbers do come up a little short the suspicion here is that he’s a better player than the numbers suggest. I could see Johnson contributing as part of a backcourt rotation.
9. Aaron Craft, Ohio State: Craft’s game suffered when he tried to take on a bigger offensive role as a junior in 2013. His efficiency was at its lowest point of his career and his defensive numbers dipped. As a senior in 2014 he was shooting less and back to being the super Buckeye role player he had been his first couple of seasons. He can run an offense and he can play effective defense, which will help him get a look. What will decide whether or not he can stick around for a long journeyman NBA career followed by some desperate team assuming he’ll make a great coach and overpaying him for the chance to find out is whether or not he can get his 3-point shot back. A defensive stud is much more valuable if he can drill the trey at a reasonably efficient rate. During his college career Craft’s 3PP went from .377 to .359 to .300 to .302. This was never a big part of his game, so one assumes if he makes it a priority to work on it, the improvement will happen,.
10. Kendrick Perry, Youngstown State: Perry is one of those players who has been around for 4 seasons playing decent ball. His senior year was good enough that he should get a look. His most impressive numbers were 2PPs of .581 as a sophomore and 610 as a senior. He’s small at 6’ 160. He starts the players who I would rate as worth a UFA look, but unlikely to stick.
11. Semaj Christon, Xavier: Christon had gotten some hype as a potential lottery selection in the pre-season. His numbers have never matched it. That he got the hype means he probably is one of the more athletic guards available. He’s just a sophomore, so he does have upside. He just hasn’t shown enough that I would burn a draft pick on him.
12. Jahii Carson, Arizona State: His numbers are pretty poor for a prospect. After posting an impressive .514 2PP as a freshman, he regressed to .433 this year. His defensive numbers are weak and he isn’t much of a passer. I can’t say he won’t make it in the right situation, as the current NBA is a great place for PGs to succeed. There are much better options out there though. With Christon and Carson I’ll say that there’s hope for each in the success of Patty Mills, a 2nd round draftee with poor prospect numbers who has gone on to be a valuable rotation player on one of the great teams of recent times.
13. Keith Appling, Michigan State: A good college player. Appling’s numbers have never gone above ordinary, but have never been bad enough that I would say stay away. Playing on a college powerhouse can suppress a player’s stats, but I’m not sure that was the case with Appling. It isn’t like there has been a parade of Spartans into the NBA during Appling’s career. Draymond Green is the only one drafted in that time, though Adreian Payne and Gary Harris should join him this year. The positive is he has decent size, and numbers. He was considered a top 30 prospect coming out of high school 4 years ago.
14. Dantrell Thomas, Nichols State: Thomas looked like a decent combo guard prospect during the 2014 season. He scored much more efficiently than he had as a junior, passed the ball better and posted better defensive numbers. Most successful small college guards are big time scorers and Thomas doesn’t quite qualify, having scored only 21.4 P40 as a senior. There’s also the fact that he had three inconsistent seasons leading up to his senior year that works against him. Another factor that could come into it is his age, which I can’t find. If he’s 22, he’s a much better prospect than if he’s 25. Since his bio on the Nicholls State web site makes no mention of a gap between high school and college, and mentions that he was a HS honor student, I’ll assume he isn’t much more than 22. Based on his senior season he’s worth a look as an UFA.
15. Chaz Williams, Massachusetts: Williams has some appeal as a short, quick changeup guard. Isaiah Thomas is a recent short player who has been a success with similar numbers, so Chaz Williams could follow in his footsteps. But just because Isaiah broke the mold and became a solid pro doesn’t mean Chaz can do it also. His numbers are similar, but also weak for a prospect. Isaiah was the 60th pick in a weak draft and Chaz is likely to go undrafted in the bumper crop of 2014, meaning he’ll get less of an opportunity.