The 2009 draft remains shaky. I wouldn’t call it historically bad or anything like that. It suffers for two reasons. The first is it follows two pretty strong drafts. Most drafts would look weak compared to the ’07 and ’08 crops. The next is it’s strength is in wing players. Breaking the ’09 talent pool down into three basic groups of bigs, wings and points, I would say the bigs are extremely weak, the wings are strong and the points are slightly below average. The result of this will be many busts in the top 10 and a few steals late in the draft since bigs are drafted early and wings aren’t generally in high demand around the league and tend to slide more than any other type of players come draft day. The past draft that keeps coming up in my mind as one this will compare to is 1989.
That year the three best bigs were drafted well after the top pick: Shawn Kemp at #17, Vlade Divac at #26 and Clifford Robinson at # 36. There were 12 perimeter players from the 1989 draft who went on to log more than 15,000 minutes in the NBA, which is a pretty high number. The players; Sean Elliot, Glen Rice, George McCloud, Pooh Richardson, Nick Anderson, Mookie Blaylock, Tim Hardaway, Dana Barros, BJ Armstrong, Blue Edwards, Sherman Douglas and Doug West; weren’t exactly Hall of Fame material, but good solid players, some of whom made all-star games and helped win championships. I see a similar mix coming out of the 2009 draft.
Another problem with this draft is the trend of players returning to college this season. I suppose this is a good thing for colleges and should make for a strong NCAA season next year. I do wonder about the logic of players being so quick to return to school this year though. Next year a new rule goes into effect requiring players to declare their intentions very early in the process making this the last season a player can go through the process and attend the camps before making a final decision on whether to declare or return to school. While this spares the likes of Roy Williams the sheer agony of having to wait until June to set his lineup for the following year, it takes away a valuable tool the players had for determining where they stood as prospects. I’ve always felt it was a good thing for any player with marginal pro aspirations to go through the process at least once. But the trend seems to be toward more control over players with the idea of keeping them in college longer. The NCAA and NBA seem to be on the same page on this issue, so expect more rules to make it more difficult for players to make the jump.
I decided to start blogging about the subject of the NBA draft. I’m not sure how this will turn out, as I tend to ignore such things. I do know that this is something I wanted to try for awhile and now seems like a good time to start.
This is a list of college players only, regardless of who has and hasn’t announced their intentions to stay in college or go pro. The only foreign players I’ve even looked at are Rubio and Jennings. Rubio probably ends up 1st or 2nd, Jennings around 30.
- Blake Griffin, PF Oklahoma: Impressive thing about Griffin has been his cool demeanor. He’s taken a couple of cheap shots and has been double- and triple-teamed all season. Through it all he kept his cool and played like a double-double machine.
- Tyreke Evans, G Memphis: Evans looks like the only college player in this draft with superstar potential. He also seems like the only college player capable of supplanting Griffin at the top of my list once all the analyses is done. For some reason the experts seem cool towards him, which is a little puzzling. I can understand having some reservation about his outside shot, but when the same experts can so easily move clearly inferior players like Warren and DeRozan into the top 10 based on a few games it’s hard to understand why they’re so hard on Evans.
- Ty Lawson, PG North Carolina: Mr. Big in the tournament. Whenever NC needed a lift, it was Lawson who provided it. In 3 seasons he’s proven he can do everything a NBA PG needs to do and he’s done most of those things exceptionally well. Any team needing a PG shouldn’t hesitate to draft this guy, no matter what their draft position is.
- Dejuan Blair, PF Pittsburgh: Teams in a desperate search for inside help should simply take a look at Blair. There are some flaws here, but he’s a solid player who’s almost certain to become a positive contributor. I’d even go as far to say that he has all-star potential if he can drop 10-15 lbs.
- Hasheem Thabeet, C Connecticut
- Cole Aldrich, C Kansas
- Ed Davis, PF North Carolina: At this point it’s time to nudge some of the bigs ahead of perimeter players who may be better prospects for no other reason than supply and demand. Thabeet and Aldrich should both become decent players. Both look like reserves now, but useful reserves. Either one has the potential to surprise and become a solid starter at center though. Davis would be a gamble at this point. The buzz he’s been getting is a little overdone. He’s been strong in some areas and not so good in others. He has enough potential to make him a worthwhile pick here.
- Kyle Singler, SF Duke: If not for a few stretches where his shooting was atrocious, Singler would be in the top 2 or 3. It seems likes he’s headed back to Duke and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were college POY next year. He’s a few tweaks in his game away from being a star. He plays for a highly-visible program that should have a very good team next year. It’s a situation that makes for a good candidate.
- Terence Williams, SF Louisville: He still checks in with an occasional offensive clunker and that hurts his overall numbers a lot. But just looking at what he offers: strong defense, great passing, elite athleticism and a solid outside shot, it’s tough not to put him in the top 10 of this draft.
- James Harden, Arizona State: Really trailed off as the season progressed. I may be punishing him too much for his first slump. I watched ASU’s loss to Syracuse in the tournament and Harden didn’t seem aggressive at all. In the 2nd half of that game with the Sun Devils struggling to keep pace he should have been driving to the hoop and drawing fouls, but seemed passive about taking the game over. His numbers are still pretty strong and he has that great frosh season still on his resume.
- Greg Monroe, PF Georgetown: It’s hard to drop him too much lower than this. His numbers aren’t great, but he has the ability to do so many things that I feel safe placing him here on potential alone. He’s also in a situation at Georgetown where his numbers are suppressed.
- Nick Calathes, PG Florida: I can understand why some are cool towards him. He’s hard to fit into a specific position. Supposedly too slow to play PG, too small for SF, doesn’t have the scorer’s mentality for SG, etc. His numbers are very strong though and I still feel he’s a pretty good player who will have a positive impact if used right.
- James Johnson, PF Wake Forest: He’s emerged as sort of a best of the rest on my list. The top 12 are all pretty solid in my opinion. They’re players I’d be happy about my team drafting. While Monroe and Davis are both projects who could easily become busts if taken too high, both are too big and talented to pass on. But I feel strongly that every other player listed above Johnson will at the very least become a good reserve and possibly more. With Johnson and all the players below him, I’m less certain. There are varying degrees of risk/payoff for each one. Johnson is solid enough. Probably a little small, but he has enough skills.
- Aaron Jackson, PG Duquense: Right now he’s the 2nd best pure PG in the draft behind Lawson. His numbers are stellar and he’s big at 6’4”. He’s a senior who was fairly anonymous for three seasons, and that’s not a good sign. But there’s reason to believe his situation at Duquense suppressed his numbers for a few years. That’s something in need of more investigation though, as are his defensive abilities. At this point in the process, I feel safe putting him here.
- Pat Patterson, PF Kentucky: Like Johnson he improved steadily throughout the season as his team faded. He’s moved past being a young prospect with potential and now looks like someone who will likely add something to an NBA team.
- Aminu al-Farouq, PF Wake Forest: His numbers are good, considering he’s just a frosh. He’s small for a PF though and has done nothing to show he could play SF. He’s still just an athlete at this point.
- Marcus Thornton, SG LSU: Great numbers, but I’m still a little leery of seniors who suddenly become this good. Unlike Jackson, he doesn’t seem to have the excuse of being in a bad team situation. The numbers say he’ll be a pretty solid player though.
- Stephen Curry, CG Davidson: He’s fading from the spotlight and if he goes back to Davidson he may even reach “whatever happened to that guy” status by next years’ draft. I do like him as a prospect. The fact that he moved to the point and did well there is impressive. My main concern is he’s still basically a scorer who put up these numbers against weak competition.
- Demarre Carroll, F Missouri: Watching him play in the tournament he seemed smaller than his listed height of 6’8”. He’s also a 5th-year senior, which is traditionally a bad thing for any prospect to be. He was one of the best players in college though, both statistically and as the top player on one of the nation’s best teams. There’s a lot to like here, but much of it may not stand up to a closer look.
- Trevor Booker, F Clemson: He’s played well enough as the season progressed that he can’t be ignored as a prospect. He announced he’s returning to school, so he’s not relevant to the 2009 draft.
- Earl Clark, G-F Louisville: The problem with Clark is I have trouble seeing where he’d fit in the NBA. He’s obviously a great talent and will be drafted and utilized in some capacity. But I can’t look at his stats and fit him into a position. With other players who don’t seem to fit like his teammate Williams and Calathes, I can look at the stats and think that they’ll be OK as point forwards of some sort. With Clark it’s hard to imagine where he might play. The biggest problem is his offense, which is too inefficient.
- JaMychal Green, PF Alabama: He’s been under the radar, probably because of his team situation. But by the end of the year he was playing as well as any freshman PF. There’s some rawness here, but potentially a good player.
- Austin Daye, F Gonzaga: A player to watch next year, assuming he returns to college. Gonzaga tends to feature their upperclassmen and next year could be Daye’s time to shine. His per minute numbers have been occasionally sensational, but he also seems too passive at times.
- Robbie Hummel, SF Purdue
- Wayne Ellington, SG North Carolina: Looked real good in the tournament, flashing some power and athleticism I had no idea was there. It’s as if something clicked in his head telling him it would be a good idea to go out with a bang.
- Justin Varnado, PF Mississippi State: Love those shotblockers.
- Demar Derozan, SF USC: A strong finish has moved him up some. What was most impressive was how much his team improved when his game stepped up. There are still some weak numbers here though.
- Gerald Henderson, SG Duke: Henderson seems to have worked hard to fix some weaknesses in his game with mixed results. At the very least he seems like a good defensive stopper.
- Jerel McNeal, G Marquette: Good player, who I probably rated a little too high last month. He didn’t exactly step up as a pure PG when James went down and that’s going to hurt him.
- Chase Budinger, SF Arizona: Giving him some benefit of the doubt, Arizona could not have been an easy place to play during his time here.
- Jrue Holiday, G UCLA: We still don’t know much about him and what he can do. I think it’s a safe bet that he’s not going to be a dominator as a SG or CG and that would be the only reason to draft him much higher than this. He might be able to play PG and could even become a pretty good one. But whether he can play and how well, is something we’re going to have to guess on. When committing a draft pick and the money that comes with it, best to go with more of a sure thing.
- Jeff Teague, CG Wake Forest: He had moments where he was unstoppable as a scorer. He faded as the season progressed. Right now he’s a 6’2” SG. The numbers are strong, but he’s too short
- Evan Turner, G-F Ohio State
- Willie Warren, G Oklahoma: Warren’s defensive numbers are pretty weak and that’s what has him this far down on the list. In 5 years the idea that there was some question whether he or Tyreke Evans was the best player in this freshman class will seem silly.
- Eric Maynor, PG Virgnia Commonwealth
- BJ Mullens, C Ohio State: He might rise into the lottery by draft day. His season was unimpressive, but during the workouts he’s going to wow scouts with the same skills that had him in the top 5 of most mocks going into the season.
- Tyler Smith, SF Tennessee
- Lee Cummard, SF-SG BYU
- Rick Jackson, PF Syracuse
- John Bryant, C Santa Clara
- Damion James, SF Texas
- Gani Lawal, PF Georgia Tech
- Jordan Hill, PF Arizona: I might be missing something, but I’m just not seeing what others are seeing here. There just isn’t much difference between Hill and the likes of Gibson, Washington and Nivins. Certainly not enough to burn a top 10 pick on this guy. I’m certainly going to look hard for something that would convince me he’s a top 10 talent, but right now I see nothing in the stats that suggests he stands out even in a weak draft.
- Matt Bouldin, G Gonzaga
- Robert Dozier, F Memphis
- Jerome Jordan, C Tulsa
- Devin Ebanks, F West Virginia
- Wesley Matthews, SG Marquette
- Luke Babbitt, F Nevada
- Luke Nevill, C Utah
- Darren Collison, PG UCLA: I might have him a little too low. Recent UCLA guards Afflalo, Farmar and Westbrook have all out-performed their college numbers in the pros and that’s something to take note of with both Collison and Holiday. There might be something in Howland’s system that suppresses the defensive numbers of guards.
- Danny Green, SG North Carolina: He took a backseat to Ellington and Lawson in the tournament and has some question marks because of it. I still believe he can help a NBA team, but there are some questions about how good a scorer he’ll be at the next level.
- Michael Washington, PF Arkansas
- Jonny Flynn, PG Syracuse: He got a boost from the tournament, but I can’t see where he separated himself from the pack at PG. He’s still too small, weak defensively and has a shaky outside shot. A good backup at best.
- Curtis Jerrells, PG Baylor
- Dante Cunningham, F Villanova: I’m giving him some extra credit for ‘Nova’s tournament run. His numbers aren’t great, nor are those of any Villanova player. But some sort of talent drove this team to the final 4 this year. Cunnngham, being the only thing resembling an inside player on this team seems like a good guy to start with when handing out the credit.
- Ahamd Nivins, PF St. Joseph’s
- Paul Delaney, G UAB
- Toney Douglas, G Florida State
- Taj Gibson, PF USC: