1. Trade Progress Report: The recent trades of Pau Gasol, Shaquille O’Neal, and Jason Kidd have all been pretty well examined and re-examined to date but I thought we could take a look a little closer and see what else the trades have yielded to date and beyond:
–Pau Gasol: This trade was obviously was a no-brainer for the Lakers. They were willing to spend the cash and they got a huge asset, without giving up anything. Since the deal, the Lakers are 14-3. Even more impressive, the Gasol Lakers are outscoring opponents at a +12.2 ppg clip, well above the team’s +7.5 ppg margin for the season as a whole (and even atop Boston’s season point margin of +10.4 ppg). While the Lakers 17-game stretch with Gasol hasn’t been it’s toughest, they were on the road most of the time (11 of the 17 games on the road). Clearly, the Lakers look as likely as any team to win the title at this point.
–Shaquille O’Neal: More than any trade in recent memory, this one is being absolutely skewered because big lumbering Shaq is the antithesis of a Suns’ player. The early returns ain’t great either. The Suns are 4-6 in that time (they are playing the Grizz as I write this, which I assume will get the Shaq Suns to .500). In terms of how Shaq has affected the team play, the Suns are averaging 106.1 ppg and letting up 110.6 ppg in their last ten games. Obviously, being outscored is not a great sign for the team.
In addition, those points scored numbers are well under Phoenix’s season averages (currently 109.2 ppg and 105.0 opponent’s ppg). It’s a little worse than that too. Phoenix scored under 90 points three times in 53 games before acquiring Shaq. The Suns scored under 90 points in their first two games with Shaq. Scoring isn’t necessary for winning but they don’t seem to be stopping anyone either. This is not to say that Shaq hasn’t been okay as a Sun (he’s actually rebounding at the best per-minute rate of his career in Phoenix) and looks much more healthy than we were led to believe in Miami. The Suns may still adjust to Shaq and have their usual strong playoff run but the bottom line is that Shaq, at this point in his career, isn’t near the player that Shawn Marion is and the trade was a clear downgrade. Shaq’s rebounding will not make up for the loss of an All-Star forward in his prime. No matter what happens at the end of the seaosn, if Marion had to go, there were better assets to be had.
–Jason Kidd: As with Shaq, it’s a bit too early to assess this trade. In terms of results, all that matters is the big playoff run that management is hoping for. What is interesting so far is how Kidd has affected this slowdown team. Adding Kidd to the Mavs is the polar opposite of the fast Suns getting big Shaq. So far, here’s what we have in Dallas:
Kidd on NJ: 37.2 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 3.9-10.8 (.366 FG%), 1.6-4.6 (.356 3FG%), 8.1 rpg, 10.4 apg, 1.5 spg, 3.6 topg, 16.0 PER
Kidd on Dall: 36.0 mpg, 10.3 ppg, 4.0-8.8 (.454 FG%), 1.1-1.8 (.600 3FG%), 6.2 rpg, 10.2 apg, 2.6 spg, 3.5 topg, 18.6 PER
So, Kidd is still pushing it here but the three-point shots are down markedly and Kidd has stepped up his two point shooting. Kidd was an awful .374 FG% with the Nets from two and he’s stepped that up to merely a bad .416 FG% from two with the Mavs. It seems that having more options down low in Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki have helped Kidd become a bit more efficient. Another interesting question is whether Kidd has now limited his three point shots to more makeable shots. On New Jersey, Kidd might’ve been in the situation to heave a bit more because the team really struggled to score (and continues to struggle). But on Dallas Kidd’s long distance shooting has been remarkably judicious in amounts taken and made (only 12-20 from three). It is highly unlikely that Kidd can continue anything near this pace going forward (he never shot so well from three even in Phoenix, where the team had quite a few offensive weapons) but it bears watching.
Kidd has had an affect on the Mavs’ offense (and defense) as a whole: the Mavs average 99.9 ppg and allow 95.8 ppg for the season. In Kidd’s 11 games, the Mavs are 6-5 and are up 3 ppg to 102.9 ppg but allow 97.6 ppg, outscoring foes by 5.3 ppg versus +4.2 for the entire season. (To be fair, however, Kidd may have painted the tape the last two games, where the Mavs skewered the crumbling Nets and Knicks by 20 and 29 respectively). Still, it’s clear that Avery Johnson and the Mavs are changing the way they play with Kidd.
2. Top Picks Together: In acquiring Joe Smith, the Cavs were able to shore up their front court. They also accomplished a nice little accident, by adding two number one overall picks to the roster in LeBron James (2003) and Smith (1995). This got me wondering how often teams have amassed former number overall draft picks. In fact, it’s a fairly common occurrence and I found over 20 instances of this happening. Indeed, the well traveled Smith, all by himself, has been paired up with number one overall picks several times (note that we are excluding territorial picks from the 50s and 60s, which knocks out some big names):
–1997-98 Sixers: Smith, Derrick Coleman, and Allen Iverson
-2005-06 Bucks: Smith and Andrew Bogut
-2006-07 Nuggets: Smith and Kenyon Martin (Smith was later traded for Iverson)
-2007-08 Cavs: Smith and LeBron
Outside of Smith, we looked at the number draft picks and found tons of other pairings. There were relatively few times, however, that three or more number one picks were ever on the same team. In addition to the 1997-98 Sixers, here are the other three plus number one pick teams we found:
–2003-04 Sixers: Coleman, Iverson, and Glenn Robinson
-1985-86 Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon, Ralph Sampson, and John Lucas
-1970-71 Bucks: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Boozer
-1960-61 to 1962-63 Lakers: Elgin Baylor, Frank Selvy, and Hot Rod Hundley
-1986-87 to 1988-89 Lakers: Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, James Worthy, and Mychal Thompson
The Lakers were the only team I could find with four number one picks and they were perhaps the best team of All-Time. Kareem also had the fortune of having Robertson and Boozer on the title Bucks of 1970-71. Similarly, the 1985-86 Rockets made the Finals–though Lucas was long since suspended when they made their run. Some of the other groups didn’t do quite as well. The Sixers have have had tons of number picks at anyone time in the 1990s and 2000s (Iverson, DC, Smith, Robinson, Chris Webber) but didn’t have much success with the group. The early 1960s Lakers also have the honor of having the most obscure number picks in Selvy and Hundley–neither of whom were more than role players as pros.
Some other forgotten/obscure number one pairings:
–1989-90 Kings and 1991-92 Bullets: Ralph Sampson and Pervis Ellison
-1993-94 Clippers: Danny Manning and Mark Aguirre
-1987-88 Cavs: Brad Daugherty and Kent Benson
-1971-72 Pistons: Bob Lanier and Jimmy Walker
-1966-67 to 1967-68 Knicks: Cazzie Russell and Walt Bellamy
Number ones who were traded for each other:
-Ralph Sampson for Joe Barry Carroll in 1987-88
-Iverson for Smith last year