NBA Draft 2010: Combo Guards

This is a group of guards who are misfits. They fit somewhere between a PG and SG, but don’t have the type of numbers that either position would traditionally need. All either led their teams in assists or were a close second, but don’t look like NBA PGs, because they played more on the wing in college or they don’t have robust enough scoring and assist numbers to look like they can make it. All have something to like about them and that’s why I’m taking a look at them. Here are the players and their numbers:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Rodney Green	.471	.265	19.5	4.5	1.1	7.2
Andy Rautins	.571	.407	14.6	5.9	1.7	6.7
Nate Rohnert	.558	.325	19.4	5.1	1.6	9.4
Matt Bouldin	.514	.365	17.0	4.4	1.8	8.8
Jerome Dyson	.428	.292	19.9	4.9	1.1	7.2
Jon Scheyer	.418	.383	19.8	5.3	3.0	6.0
Willie Warren	.524	.309	20.4	5.1	1.1	5.4

In keeping with the theme of this being a weak year on the perimeter, this group doesn’t measure up particularly well. For SGs and combos, a P40 of at least 20.0 has always been a necessity. Also important are a 2-point pct of at least .500 and a RSB40 of 7.0. Some of these players make it on some counts, but none hit all the numbers.

Jon Scheyer, Duke: There are two things to like about Scheyer. The first is his low turnover rate. The next is he has been a very efficient scorer his entire career without hitting a high percentage of his FG attempts. He’s done this because more than half his FGAs have been 3-pointers and he’s hit over 38% of them. The other is he gets to the line a lot and hits a high percentage of his FTs. The biggest negative for Scheyer is he’s had a very low 2 point pct. throughout his career. Here’s the same table I used in the Greivis Vasquez analysis, showing successful NBA PGs who had a 2 point pct. less than .480 during their senior season.

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Bobby Jackson	.476	.330	19.4	5.1	1.7	10.7
Jason Terry	.473	.398	22.9	5.8	1.3	6.6
Howard Eisley	.470	.481	18.1	5.2	1.8	5.6
Rick Brunson	.469	.286	17.4	4.3	1.7	8.9
Vernon Maxwell	.467	.395	21.9	4.7	1.5	6.6
Jacque Vaughn	.466	.333	12.9	7.9	2.5	5.5
Randy Foye	.463	.350	23.7	3.5	1.4	9.0
Jason Hart	.460	.330	14.1	7.7	1.9	5.8
Eddie House	.449	.365	24.8	3.7	1.5	8.4
Bimbo Coles	.448	.307	27.4	4.3	1.2	8.0
Anthony Goldwire	.440	.301	18.6	6.6	1.7	6.4
Randy Brown	.417	.278	15.3	8.2	1.8	8.4
Steve Blake	.413	.416	14.3	8.8	2.2	6.7
Brevin Knight	.407	.409	20.4	9.8	2.3	8.3
Jamaal Tinsley	.406	.381	17.7	7.5	1.6	8.6
Jon Scheyer	.418	.383	19.8	5.3	3.0	6.0

One thing I should say about Scheyer is he wasn’t a pure PG. He didn’t always bring the ball down the court, but the offense did often run through him his senior year. This and his relatively low assist rate tells me he isn’t cut out to be one of those reserve floor general PGs in the mold of Vaughn or Knight. He also has the low RSB40, which has historically been a bad thing. So he doesn’t stack up here as well as say Grievis Vasquez, another senior PG with a sub-.500 2 point pct. He does have that 3.0 A/TO though. That’s a pretty high number for any level and is something that should be looked at. Here’s a list of other college senior PGs with an A/TO of at least 2.6:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Greg Anthony	.492	.395	14.8	11.3	4.6	6.8
Steve Kerr	.521	.573	15.4	4.8	4.2	3.9
Lee Mayberry	.573	.383	17.8	6.9	3.6	5.7
Bruce Douglas	.476	n/a	10.6	7.4	3.6	7.0
Pooh Richardson	.580	.495	16.1	8.1	3.0	6.3
Craig Neal	.585	.364	9.6	11.8	2.9	5.3
Jeff Hornacek	.478	n/a	14.7	7.1	2.8	6.5
Travis Diener	.438	.405	23.2	8.2	2.8	6.2
Danny Young	.456	n/a	11.7	6.0	2.7	5.3
Brent Price	.538	.392	21.1	7.0	2.6	7.4
Adonis Jordan	.494	.428	15.4	5.8	2.6	5.5
Muggsy Bogues	.519	.443	15.1	9.8	2.6	6.4
Jon Scheyer	.418	.383	19.8	5.3	3.0	6.0

What we’re seeing here is that while there are some solid players here, posting a great A/TO hardly guarantees a successful career. Most of the players here were PGs first and foremost, including Hornacek who made the successful transition to SG in the pros. Scheyer is more like Kerr or Jordan. Jordan did not make it and the only reason for Kerr’s NBA success is he was arguably the greatest 3-point shooter the league has ever seen. Just one more note here, if you’re looking at the numbers of Brent Price and thinking they’re pretty stellar, they are. The thing is he was a 5^th year senior at the time, and it has often been the case that such players just aren’t as good as their numbers.

The reason I find Scheyer intriguing as a prospect is he seems like the type of player who would work well with a superstar. He’s smart, team-oriented, low-mistake, high-efficiency, etc. He possesses a lot of the qualities that teams are looking for in supporting players now, including the ability to drill the 3-pointer. The low RSB40 suggests he’s a little weak athletically and that won’t help his case. I do feel Scheyer is worth a 2^nd-round draft pick. He does a lot of things well and he was one of the main players on an NCAA championship team that was devoid of great prospects. While he doesn’t look like a traditional prospect, he has flashed enough promise to make him worth a look.

Willie Warren, Oklahoma: This guy had been a hot item before his season and prospects went south. As recently as December the mocks had him going top 5 in this draft. Things fell apart for him during his sophomore season at Oklahoma when he struggled playing with some erratic freshmen. In February he was diagnosed with mono and missed all but one of the Sooners’ last eight games. Warren’s numbers and rep took a hit and now he’s barely in the first round discussion.

I’m not sure what it was that had scouts falling all over themselves over Warren to begin with. Perhaps his combination of size, playmaking and scoring ability had them envisioning a similar player to Dwyane Wade. But seriously, a quick look at the low RSB40 should have tempered some of that excitement.

Willie Warren	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Freshman	.571	.372	17.9	3.9	1.4	4.2
Sophomore	.524	.309	20.4	5.1	1.1	5.4

As a scorer he looked very promising. A combination of .571 and .372 is about as impressive as a freshman can be. The difference in years was the difference in situations as much as anything. As a freshman he was the outside complement and 2^nd option to the best inside player in the country, Blake Griffin. Warren and Griffin were surrounded by a veteran supporting cast. As a soph he was asked to lead a team that was young and featured a couple of freshmen in Gallon and Mason-Griffin who seemed more concerned about playing their obligatory season of NCAA basketball before jumping to the pros than they were with pushing their team to the postseason. That he was able to keep his 2-point pct over .500 while netting over 20.0 P40 is impressive.

I’m certain some teams are looking at Willie Warren and thinking: “Buy low!” It would make some sense. His poor sophomore season can be easily explained away by the situation at Oklahoma and his coming down with mono during the season. But he still has some pretty big negatives to overcome. The main one is his low RSB40. He improved the number some as a sophomore, but still has a ways to go. His offense is good enough that I could see him becoming a useful instant offense type of player. But with those weak defensive numbers, it is hard to see him as anything other than a reserve.

Nate Rohnert, Denver: I feel compelled to mention Nate Rohnert, because he meets the same standards that had me raving about the prospects of Jeremy Lin a couple of weeks ago.  Those numbers are a RSB40 over 9.0 and a 2-point FG pct. over .540. As I mentioned with Lin, this combination usually bodes well for a prospect. With Rohnert this enthusiasm should be tempered quite a bit. The first and most obvious reason for this is he’s listed as a guard-forward, which usually means forward. As a 6’5” guard with some point and scoring skills, Rohnert would be a hot item, as a 6’5” forward, not so much. The bigger problem is the way his RSB40 breaks down. Taking the table from the Lin analysis of past NCAA guards who topped 9.0 and .540, I’ll break down the RSB40 numbers by rebounds, blocks and steals:

Player	RSB40	R40	S40	B40
Andre Miller	10.2	6.9	2.7	0.6
Penny Hardaway	13.0	9.1	2.5	1.3
Steve Francis	9.8	5.9	3.6	0.3
Gary Payton	9.1	4.9	3.7	0.6
Allen Iverson	9.3	4.7	4.1	0.5
Jason Kidd	11.8	7.9	3.6	0.3
Rajon Rondo	10.7	7.9	2.6	0.2
Greg Grant	9.4	5.9	3.2	0.4
Bobby Dixon	9.8	6.1	3.5	0.1
George Hill	10.0	7.6	2.0	0.5
Jeremy Lin	9.7	5.4	3.0	1.3
Nate Rohnert	9.4	7.6	1.6	0.2

All were at least 2.0 in S40, while Rohnert is at 1.6. This means the players I compared with Lin were guards who were dominant ballhawks and good rebounders. Rohnert looks more like a forward who played the point. The cases of Rohnert, Mikhail Torrance and Armon Johnson have me thinking the use of RSB40 in the evaluation of guards needs to be refined a tad to weight steals more than rebounds and blocks. Rohnert has other negatives as well. He didn’t score over 20.0 P40, which has always been a huge deal for a guard who doesn’t play the point. Even if we were to look at him as a PG, his A40 is low.

As for where Rohnert ranks, I’d have to say he’s in the undrafted group. He’s the type of prospect to bring in as an UFA for a look see, just to find out what is there. I do like that he can rebound and pass well for a wing player and that he hit over 55% of his 2 pointers. Like most of the marginal perimeter players, his future probably depends on showing he can consistently hit the NBA 3-pointer. Considering his career high is .327 that seems unlikely.

Andy Rautins, Syracuse: This is a unique player. Andy Rautins took 83% of his shots from behind the arc his last couple of seasons. This number is unprecedented for a player who both played for a major conference team and attempted the number of shots Rautins did. Basically he was a 3-point specialist for one of the nation’s most talented teams. He hit around 40% of these 3-pointers, so he did his job in above-average fashion. That he also was the Orange’s main distributor adds to his resume.

The problem with Rautins’ shot distribution is historically such players have a terrible history of getting to the next level. The only such player who had a long NBA career was Steve Kerr. Kerr’s career was based on one thing: that he was the best 3-point shooter ever. Rautins, with a career high of .407, hardly seems to be on the same path. Rautins is bigger, more rugged and a better passer than most players who were 3-point specialists. But he doesn’t score anywhere near as often as such a player should. At 14.6 P40, Rautins looks like nothing more than a very valuable college role player and such players rarely make it.

Rodney Green, LaSalle; Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga and Jerome Dyson, Connecticut: I include these three, because they are in the mix as prospects. There is very little about them that would suggest any one of them is a serious NBA prospect and not much reason to go on too much about any of them. Green and Dyson just don’t score often or efficiently enough to be considered. Bouldin just comes up too short in scoring and passing to think that he can make it. I will say that all three had a down year statistically as a senior, especially with shooting percentages. But none were ever good enough to be considered anything more than a marginal prospect. Subjectively I do like Bouldin and feel he’s worth a look as an UFA. When I watched Gonzaga play, he always seemed to have good control of the offense, so I would give a higher ranking if I got into intangibles. Since my analysis is based solely on statistics, I couldn’t say the Matt Bouldin looks like an NBA player.