NBA Draft 2010: Shooting Guards: Part 1, The Passers

These players are clearly SGs, as opposed to the last group of guards I looked at who were a little hard to define. The thing to know about this group is that while scoring is their main function, they’re also able to pass and have even shown some potential to run an offense. I’ll look at them as SGs though, so here’s a quick recap on what I look for in SG prospects:

• Scoring over 20.0 P40 and the higher the better. This is one benchmark that seems to be non-negotiable for prospects if they’re juniors or seniors. Frosh and soph get a little leeway here.

• 2-point FG pct. over .500, again the higher the better.

• RSB40 over 7.0. This one has been huge and the success of Tyreke Evans just continues to drive home the importance of this number for guards. Any SG who hits double figures in RSB40 is a player to watch if he hits the other benchmarks.

• An A/TO over 0.8. This one also seems hard and fast. This is one area where it doesn’t seem important how far a player is over 0.8, just that he’s above it. A little leeway is given to freshmen.

That’s about it. Well height is important also. The more a player shrinks below 6’3”, the more difficult a time he’ll have. I’ll add that any other positive is a good thing, but in general a look at these four numbers will tell you most of what you need to know about any SG prospect. Here are the players:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	RSB40	A40	A/TO
Manny Harris	.485	.308	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.4
Marquez Haynes	.522	.409	25.8	7.0	4.3	1.1
Dominique Jones	.521	.311	23.0	9.1	3.9	1.2
Sylvan Landesberg	.454	.383	22.6	7.8	3.7	1.2
Scottie Reynolds	.516	.385	22.9	6.2	4.1	1.2
Elliot Williams	.527	.366	21.3	6.4	4.5	1.3

With each player the analysis is going to be fairly simple. I’ll take the number that is most worrisome and look at the player compared to similar players in the past to determine exactly how big a problem such a number poses. Players are listed in order of preference.

Elliot Williams, Memphis: Williams transferred from Duke to Memphis this past year. While he missed out on an NCAA championship, it looks like the opportunity to play he got at Memphis will lead to him being a first round draft pick. In that sense you’d have to say the transfer was a good move. Right now the only number of his that looks weak is his 6.4 RSB40. Here is a list of successful NBA SGs who also posted a RSB40 below 7.0 their sophomore seasons:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Brent Barry	.571	.234	10.9	5.5	1.1	6.8
Reggie Miller	.553	n/a	17.1	2.9	1.4	6.8
Jeff Hornacek	.500	n/a	10.9	7.4	2.3	6.5
Cuttino Mobley	.432	.303	24.9	2.0	0.6	6.5
Kendall Gill	.527	.304	14.6	5.8	1.9	6.0
Rex Chapman	.546	.415	22.0	4.2	1.4	5.9
Hubert Davis	.486	.396	17.9	4.9	1.3	5.5
Allan Houston	.520	.500	26.6	4.3	1.0	5.2
Elliot Williams	.527	.366	21.3	4.5	1.3	6.4

This isn’t a bad group to be in with. Miller, Hornacek and Houston were all all-stars. Barry, Mobley, Gill and Davis all had long, productive careers. Chapman also played a lot of minutes, though not at the level of the others. There are a couple of things I need to mention before going too overboard. The first is most of these players stayed in school and got their RSB40 over 7.0. In the case of Barry and Gill they boosted theirs up over 9.0. The second thing is this isn’t a comprehensive list. There were other similar players, including Terry Dehere and James Robinson who were able to stick around the league long enough to play about 7000 minutes. There were also players like Damon Bailey, Chris Kingsbury and Allan Ray who will never make an impact. So what this table shows is that just because it is possible to overcome a sub-7 RSB40 as a sophomore, it isn’t always a sure thing. The big thing Williams has going for him here is he appears to be slated as a first round pick. With that comes opportunity some others may not get.

In general I like Elliot Williams as a prospect. I like that he already brings a strong offensive game and appears to have some ability to play the point. I also like that in transferring he made a move that worked out so well for him. Transfers don’t often work out so well, so the fact that Williams was able to succeed so quickly and easily after transferring is impressive.  Like the rest of this group, his numbers don’t say that he’s a future star. But he has shown enough and there is enough history here to think that he has the goods to become a productive NBA player. My guess is that Elliot Williams will stick around the league for a long career and might even sneak into an all-star game or two should he get himself into the right situation.

Dominique Jones, South Florida: Jones has been a 3-year starter at South Florida. He has led the Bulls in scoring each of the 3 seasons. He has been in the top 2 on the team in rebounds, assists and steals in each of those 3 seasons. He has been the star at South Florida. The BMOC. He also had some drastic splits in his production this year:

Dominique Jones	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A/TO	RSB40
Freshman	.530	.353	19.6	1.2	7.3
Sophomore	.486	.309	19.3	1.5	7.8
Nov-Dec	.539	.383	20.1	1.5	9.5
January	.577	.350	30.1	1.3	8.0
February	.415	.256	20.6	0.8	9.9
March	.509	.167	21.8	1.0	8.5

In January he looked like he was gunning for the Wooden award. In February he was a disaster. It is possible he was worn out from playing over 37 minutes per game and basically carrying an undermanned team to a respectable 9-9 record in the Big East. The year as a whole was pretty solid, but I prefer a player be a little more consistent.

One of the things Jones did very well this past year was get to the line, averaging 9.2 FTAs per 40 minutes. While this in itself is good, it doesn’t mean much when deciding where Dominique Jones ranks as a prospect. The list of top NCAA juniors and seniors in FTA per 40 minutes does give us a good look into which players are and aren’t good NBA prospects.

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A/TO	RSB40	S40	FTA40
Hersey Hawkins	.581	.394	37.1	1.7	11.5	2.7	11.7
Harold Miner	.472	.352	30.3	0.6	9.6	1.3	11.0
Chris Monroe	.481	.369	24.0	0.7	8.7	1.3	10.8
Donny Boyce	.431	.317	26.1	1.2	12.2	2.6	10.4
Ed Gray	.517	.302	31.3	0.6	7.5	2.1	9.7
Dwyane Wade	.519	.318	26.8	1.4	12.2	2.7	9.4
Dennis Hopson	.550	.419	33.1	1.3	12.4	2.5	9.1
Casey Jacobsen	.481	.372	24.9	1.5	5.9	0.7	9.0
Byron Irvin	.599	.348	24.3	1.4	8.2	2.2	8.9
Shea Seals	.480	.301	25.3	0.9	9.7	2.3	8.8
Julius Hodge	.530	.255	19.6	1.8	10.1	1.6	8.6
Greg Graham	.532	.427	19.5	1.5	8.6	2.1	8.5
Dominique Jones	.521	.311	23.0	1.2	9.0	1.8	9.2

The only two players on the list who made it big were Hawkins and Wade. Both made it in a big way. Other than Hopson, all the others had a number or two that I would have called a red flag at the time. Miner, Monroe, Boyce, Jacobson and Seals all had the 2 point pct under .500. Miner, Monroe and Gray had the A/TO below 0.8. Hodge and Graham had the P40 below 20.0. Byron Irvin had good numbers, but he was a 5^th-year senior at the time who never played anywhere near this level previously, which is also considered a red flag. As for Dennis Hopson, I’ll just say he’s a prospect worthy of some sort of case study to figure out what exactly went wrong. Since Jones won’t be drafted #3 while the next Scottie Pippen is still on the board, any concerns about him being another Hopson are moot. What I do want to point out about Jones is that none of the red flags are there for him. He isn’t at the level of Wade and Hawkins, but at least he hits all the right numbers, which is a good thing for his chances of having a long NBA career.

Dominique Jones is far from being a perfect prospect. He’s had streaks where he was a terribly inefficient scorer. Other than that outburst in January he has never been a real high-volume scorer, say someone who is around 25.0 P40 which is the neighborhood the best of the best SGs usually are at. That and the fact that his steals are below 2.0 S40 tell me it is unlikely that Jones will become a star. I’m not too concerned about the 3-point pct. There have been players who were worse at the same point in their careers but went on to have long careers. He did hit over 35% as a freshman, so he has some ability to shoot. Jones looks like the type of player who should make the league and stick around for a decent amount of time. If he gets himself into the right situation he could even thrive. He does face the same problem all SGs do in that he could easily get caught in a numbers game. There are just more capable SGs out there than there are NBA jobs.

Manny Harris, Michigan: Harris has done a lot of things well in his 3 seasons. He’s been Michigan’s leading scorer and assist guy. The RSB40 has always been good. His problem is he just hasn’t been able to get his shot to fall consistently enough. The .485 and .308 he put up this year has been pretty typical of his entire college career and this has never been a good sign for a prospect. But it isn’t unprecedented for an NCAA junior SG to put up a sub-.500 2-point pct. and go onto to a stellar NBA career:

NCAA junior	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Ray Allen	.477	.466	26.9	3.9	1.4	10.1
Allan Houston	.476	.418	23.2	3.6	1.2	7.4
Michael Redd	.474	.315	20.6	2.5	1.0	9.5
Richard Hamilton	.496	.347	26.8	3.3	1.1	7.8
Dell Curry	.480	.571	21.9	3.8	1.1	10.6
Anthony Peeler	.491	.414	22.5	5.7	1.4	9.4
Manny Harris	.485	.308	21.3	4.8	1.4	9.6

Not a bad group. I will say that Houston, Redd and Hamilton fall into the Miller category of PG and all became overpaid salary cap burdens because of this. But in Hamilton’s case he did help his team to a championship. My point is that even though these three players were all-stars, they were also all overrated and overpaid to a point where they hurt their teams. I don’t see many Harris as being this type of player, because his best numbers are the defensive and passing numbers. While this is a good group for Harris to be bunched with a problem is revealed when these players’ 2-point pct from their other seasons are added to the mix.

Player	Freshman	Sophomore	Junior	Senior
Ray Allen	.548	.515	.477	n/a
Dell Curry	.475	.522	.480	.529
Richard Hamilton	.392	.463	.496	n/a
Allan Houston	.440	.520	.476	.504
Anthony Peeler	.529	.464	.491	.475
Michael Redd	.490	.506	.474	n/a
Michael Finley	.484	.525	.538	.451
Manny Harris	.466	.485	.485	n/a

I added Finley to this group, because his draft stock was hurt by poor shooting his senior year. Curry’s numbers are his overall FG pct, because breakdowns weren’t available. With the exception of the freshman years of Curry and Peeler all players scored over 20.0 P40 each year. What I wanted to show here is that FG percentages can fluctuate from year to year. For Allen, Curry, Houston and Redd their junior years represented an off shooting year. For Finley it was his senior year. Hamilton was different. He didn’t look like much of a prospect to me going into the ’99 draft, but he defied the odds and became a pretty solid player. This was probably a combination of smarts, work ethic and timing. I’ll add that Hamilton and the others all scored more frequently than Harris. That and the fact that Harris has yet to get his 2-point pct over .500 in 3 seasons is a bad sign for him.

Right now Manny Harris looks like an NBA athlete, but lacks the necessary scoring efficiency to be anything but a reserve. That he has shown little efficiency in his three seasons at Michigan makes it doubtful he’ll ever get to where he needs to be. He might knock around the league for a few years, because of his defensive abilities, but I doubt he’ll have much of a career. I don’t even know that I’d go as high as round 2 with him, because SGs are so that burning even a second rounder on a marginal one is a waste of resources.

Scottie Reynolds, Villanova: Reynolds had his best year as a senior and often this isn’t a good thing. There have been exceptions, but in general when a player takes until his senior year to get himself to this level, it is a problem. Here is Reynolds’ career:

Scottie Reynolds	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Freshman	.397	.376	19.5	5.3	1.3	5.8
Sophomore	.443	.383	19.1	3.9	1.1	5.5
Junior	.454	.349	18.2	4.0	1.3	4.8
Senior	.516	.385	22.9	4.1	1.2	6.2

Looking at the senior year by itself, I might be able to buy into Reynolds as a 2^nd-rounder. He scored often and efficiently with good passing numbers and a RSB40 that was low, but decent enough that it wouldn’t discourage me from giving him a shot. He’s also always been a more efficient scorer than the percentages show, because he gets to the line a lot and has consistently hit around 80% of his FTs. The negatives are just too glaring though. Reynolds failed to meet both scoring benchmarks until his senior year. He never met the RSB40 benchmark of 7.0 and was only even close this past year. At 6’2” a player should either be a PG or a gunner and Reynolds is close, but falls short on both counts. He looks like a good college player from a big program who just doesn’t have enough to make it to the next level.

Sylven Landesberg, Virginia: Like Elliot Williams, Sylven Landesberg enters the draft as a sophomore with one number that just doesn’t measure up. In Landesberg’s case it is a low 2 point pct, just like Manny Harris. Landesberg’s .454 is significantly lower than Harris’s .485 though. As I did with Williams, I’ll compare Landesberg to past college sophs who went onto NBA success, despite a similarly low number. Here are successful NBA SGs who posted a 2-point FG pct below .470 as college sophs:

Player	2 pt pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40	A/TO	RSB40
Cuttino Mobley	.432	.303	24.9	2.0	0.6	6.5
Anthony Peeler	.464	.353	20.2	6.9	2.0	9.5
Richard Hamilton	.463	.404	26.4	2.9	1.1	7.5
Aaron McKie	.454	.393	21.4	3.4	1.4	8.7
Lucious Harris	.431	.327	23.8	2.4	0.9	7.7
Sylven Landesberg	.454	.383	22.6	3.7	1.2	7.8

Unlike Williams’ case, this list isn’t all that impressive. Hamilton made himself an all-star and Mobley had a nice run. Other than that there are just a few journeyman role players. There’s also the fact that there are several players, including but not limited to Bracey Wright, Courtney Alexander, Mark Macon, Kareem Townes, Askia Jones, Will Solomon, Felipe Lopez, Shea Seals, Daryl Wilson, etc, who were roughly where Landesberg is now as a player, who either never made it or didn’t last.

Because of this, I have trouble seeing Sylven Landesberg making much of an impact in the NBA. Very few players have overcome such a low 2-point pct. at this point in their careers. Three of those players, Hamilton, Peeler and McKie, had the benefit of being a 1^st round draft pick that I doubt Landesberg will have. He might show enough to latch on somewhere for a short time, but I doubt Sylven Landesberg’s NBA career is going to be much more than that.

Marquez Haynes, UT Arlington: A 5^th-year senior, Haynes put up some good scoring numbers and the rest of his game was solid enough. There are a lot of problems with Haynes as a prospect though. He looks every bit like the 5^th-year senior who dominates for the first time in his career. He spent his first two college seasons against better competition at BC and couldn’t break into the rotation. He shot .409 on 3-pointers, but his previous high was .346. He put up these numbers at a small college and it is always important for small college players to be a little more dominant than this.

Haynes did show enough in the way of scoring ability to make him a guy worth looking at as an UFA and worth a mention here. I have my doubts about him, simply because older players just don’t have a very good history. If the improvement in 3-point shooting is real, then he has a chance. If not, his hopes are slim.