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All-Star Analysis

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Yes, I detest the All-Star game and haven’t watched it in years and I don’t usually read the All-Star pick columns either.  Still, I can’t deny there is some appeal to chew the scenery on the process.  So here’s my take on this year’s voting: 

East Starters

Guards, Dwyane Wade and Jason Kidd: It’s always funny that the writers and the coaches seem to detest rewarding good players on bad teams.  I understand the syllogism: good player = good team, therefore, bad team = bad player, or at the very least overrated player.  But it’s usually not that simple.  Wade’s numbers are down a bit but he is still, by far, the best guard in the East.  The Heat are mired in a terrible slump but how can you blame Wade?  The Heat have no point guard or depth:

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Transactions

Transactions 12/29-1/15

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Cleveland Cavaliers 

1/14    Sign Mike Brown to a contract extension 

Despite the early rumors that he was in trouble, Brown got the extension he had been requesting.  Brown’s contract was set to expire after 2008-09 and it would have created quite a bit of controversy to let the coach that led them to the Cavs to their only Finals appearance to twist in the wind as a potential lame duck.  In short, it would make a really bad atmosphere to have when the real goal is keeping LeBron James comfortable and happy.  It doesn’t hurt that Brown had done a perfectly good job.  Sure, the team’s current record (19-18) ain’t great but throw out LeBron’s five games missed with injury and the team is a more typical 19-13.  The defense is quite at the great levels of 2006-07 (15th in defensive ranking this year versus 4th last year) but I expect the Cavs to be pretty good come playoff time–provided they finally add a shooter or point guard.  So, keeping the status quo made plenty of sense.

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NBA Draft

A Look At NCAA Prospects So Far

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This past summer I came up with a numerical ranking system for college prospects. The systems ranks players stats compared with those that previously successful prospects did well in. The rankings are done differently for each position, but only in the sense that different stat categories are considered. The system gives a maximum of 40 points. Any player above 35 should be considered a likely future star. From 30-35 is a potential star and at the very least a player who should make the league and have a long career. Players in the 25-30 range are a little more iffy. Some make it, others don’t. Any player below 25 is a long shot, though freshman and sophomores are given some leeway here. I don’t rate freshmen and upperclassmen differently, but it’s safe to say that if a freshman and senior have the same number, the freshman is a much better prospect.

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Surprise Squads So Far

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If you had to pick the surprise good teams of the first two months of the season, Portland, New Orleans, and the Lakers are the three teams that are really outperforming expectations.  Yes, the Celtics are probably the most outperforming so far, but I don’t anyone really expected any of other three teams to break .500, let alone be on paces to break 50 wins.  How realistic is it that any of these three team can keep this pace?  First off, here are their current records and point differentials: 

-New Orleans Hornets, 22-11, .667, 1 game back in the Southwest, point differential of +4.2 per game

-Los Angeles Lakers, 20-11, .645%, 2.5 games back in the Pacific, point differential of +5.5 per game

-Portland Trailblazers, 20-13, .606, 0.5 games back in the Northwest, point differential of +0.5 per game 

By the purest measure, aggregate point differential, the Lakers looks the most legitimate of the group.  In fact, they have the third best point differential on the conference, barely behind Phoenix (+5.7) and the Spurs (+6.6).  Of course, point differential is instructive but could be a function of luck, competition, or even fluke injuries.  Let’s take a quick peak at each team and see:

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Transactions

Transactions 12/6-12/28

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Boston Celtics 

12/18    Waive Brandon Wallace 

Wallace made the opening night roster as a pet project of Danny Ainge and was then sent over to the NBDL, without ever playing a regular season game.  The Celts cited roster flexibility when they cut him, which has sent speculation that a trade may/free agent signing be in the offing (adding some veteran depth?).  Stay tuned… 

Charlotte Bobcats 

12/14    Waive Ronald Dupree

12/14    Acquire Nazr Mohammed from Detroit in exchange for Primoz Brezec and Walter Herrmann 

Considering that none of these guys played much, there was a decent amount of talent exchanged in this deal.  From the Bobcat’s perspective, they Herrmann was stuck behind Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, and Matt Carroll and they were sick of Brezec, whose numbers and playing time have really waned since his peak in 2004-05.  Nazr isn’t a great defensive player but he is much better than Brezec and has a more well-balanced game.  There is a price, however, for this adequate center play.  This is the salary situation for the traded parties: 

–Mohammed (age 30): has about $20 million and three years left on his contract after this season.

–Brezec (age 28):  his contract expires after this year (he makes $2.8 million this season)

–Herrmann (age 27): his contract expires after this year (he makes $2 million this season)

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Best In Franchise

All-Time All-Rookie Teams: Pacific Division

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After some delay, we finally reach the conclusion of our six-part series on All-Time All-Rookie tours by division.  The final installment takes to out to the Pacific Division, where three of the five teams are original pre-shot clock NBA teams all of whom fled the Northeast to try their hand out west.  Do the ages of these franchises yield more quality rookies to choose from?  Let’s take a look….

-Golden State Warriors:  In the case of the Philadelphia Warriors (now Golden State Warriors) there is a wealth of rookies to choose from, including maybe the best player (and the best rookie) of All-Time.  We are, of course, referring to Wilt Chamberlain’s monster rookie season in 1959-60 (37.6 ppg, 27 rpg).  No matter what you think about level of competition or pace if play from the early 1950s, you just can’t top it.  And it’s not like the Warriors or lacking for good rookie seasons from centers.  Nate Thurmond, Robert Parish, Joe Barry Carroll, and Marc Jackson all have been very useful as rookies.

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