Hoops Analyst

This award usually goes to the top scoring rookie, regardless of team record or how valuable a player the rookie is. Before I get into any individual players, I want to mention that I believe this will be one of the great draft classes ever. Even without Oden the group is loaded with talented players. I’m also guessing we’ll see more good players coming out of round 2 than in any draft since 1986. Sometime in January there will be articles appearing on-line and in magazines touting this group against the ’84 and ’96 classes. Some will even go over the top and suggest that the 2007 draft class might save the NBA, as if it needs saving. As far as the award goes, it seems like Durant’s to lose. He’s the only one who will immediately be the top gun on his team. For that reason it seems almost pointless to list 10 candidates, but there are several good rookies out there and no one is really sure what will transpire at this point. When projecting any rookie’s season, I try not to take too much stock in where he is coming out of the pre-season. There have been many rookies who were shaky coming out of training camp but found their NBA legs and confidence by November and proceeded to light up the league.  Finally this list reflects chances for winning the ROY, not how valuable I feel each rookie will be. If that were the case, Joakim Noah and Julian Wright would make the top 5 along with Durant, Horford and Conley. Neither were included, because it’s doubtful they’ll score enough points to even get considered for the award.

1. Kevin Durant, Seattle: This is an easy choice. The first thing Durant has working in his favor is he’s a very good player. With Oden sitting out the season, there shouldn’t be any doubt that Durant is the most talented rookie to take the floor this season. His college numbers were historically good and his athleticism allows him to play 3 positions. In addition to scoring, he’s capable of impressive numbers in rebounds, blocks, steal and 3-point pct. The Sonics have shipped out their top 2 scorers from last season, basically clearing the decks for the Durant era to start ASAP. Most of the other rooks are looking more like role players than like their team’s top scorers. The only thing that would keep Durant from winning the ROY is an injury.
2. Al Horford, Atlanta: Right now he’s part of the mix at PF-C in Atlanta. By the end of the year he’ll probably emerge as Atlanta’s best front court player and starting center. I can’t say for sure whether or not that will transfer to much more than 12-14 PPG, because Atlanta has some gunners in their backcourt who are going to take most of the shots. But Horford could be the Hawks most valuable player by mid-season and might even post double figures in points and rebounds, with strong numbers in blocks and assists also. Should anything happen with Durant he has the next best chance.
3. Mike Conley Jr., Memphis: Going into the season reports have the Grizzlies leaning toward Stoudamire as the starter, with Lowry as the main backup. I can’t believe that will continue. Stoudamire just isn’t a very good player and there’s no way he’ll keep Conley on the bench for very long. The Grizzlies are planning on running and Conley, with his quickness, smarts and passing skills, seems like the perfect player to lead the charge. He’s not going to be a big scorer, but if Memphis runs as much as they’re promising to, he’ll post an impressive enough PPG just by being part of a running team. He also has an excellent chance to finish top 10 in assists and steals. But he has to get on the court first.
4. Corey Brewer, Minnesota: It’s always a good thing for a rookie when his team ships out his competition. Both Trenton Hassell and Ricky Davis have been traded, so it looks like Brewer will be the starting SF sooner rather than later. He’ll probably be the Timberwolves’ top defender, but he hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a great scorer in college. My guess is that he’ll fall somewhere behind Jefferson, Foye and McCants in the Timberwolves scoring pecking order, which isn’t a good place for a potential ROY to be. But on a team like this, where questions like: “Who’s going to score and how often?”, will be answered as the season progresses, it’s not out of the question for any player, especially a rookie, to emerge as one of the teams’ leading scorers.
5. Al Thornton, LA Clippers: He trailed only Durant in preseason scoring among rooks and with Brand out for a few months it looks like he’ll get a shot to play. I’m not sure how long the Clippers can stay with him as a guy who plays PF exclusively though. Thornton is a substandard rebounder and will probably be overmatched defensively at PF. His game is better suited to playing SF, or being a matchup guy off the bench. His PT could hinge on whether or not the Clippers remain in the playoff hunt.  If they fall out of things quickly, Thornton may get minutes simply for the sake of giving him experience and that would help his chances quite a bit as he’s a scorer first and foremost.
6. Acie Law IV, Atlanta: I’m mainly focusing on scorers here and Law is certainly one of those. He does have a similar problem to Thornton though in that he’s going to be asked to fill a role he may not be best suited for. He’s going to be asked to play PG, when he might be better utilized as a combo guard, like Chicago used Ben Gordon as a rookie. Law was a shoot-first PG at Texas A&M and honestly that’s the last thing the Hawks need. If he does start, he’s a talented enough scorer, that he could finish 2^nd on the team to Johnson.
7. Juan Carlos Navarro, Memphis: He has to be considered for one reason: He’s a scorer playing on a running team. Like Conley he’s going to rack up a fairly impressive PPG just by being in the rotation. Navarro was a terrific scorer in Europe and has the potential to do the same in the NBA. I could see him developing into the Memphis version of Leandro Barbosa. Problem is he’s 27 and there’s probably going to be some bias against him because of that.
8. Luis Scola, Houston: Like Navarro, he’s a foreign player who’s 27 and voters seem to prefer rookies to be more of a typical rookie age. Scola will have a big impact though. He’s coming into a situation where he’ll be a huge upgrade on the previous player, Juwan Howard. He’ll also be an important player on one of the league’s better teams. I’m just not sure how much he’ll score, with McGrady, Yao and James around. Since that’s the main factor in the MVP race, right now his chances are tough to gauge.
9. Marco Bellinelli, Golden State: He can light it up and that should lead to a bunch of points in this offense. He’s also on a roster that’s loaded with wing players, most of whom are better defenders than Marco and that could mean lots of time on the bench. He seems capable of scoring 20 PPG if he can get himself enough minutes in this offense. It would be a soft 20 PPG, but voters don’t seem to concern themselves with such things when selecting the top rookie.
10. Yi Jianlian, Milwaukee: The rumor is he’s been promised 25 minutes per game by the Bucks as an enticement to get him to come to Milwaukee. The fact that he logged exactly 25 minutes in his first game might verify this. I don’t know that this is a terrible thing, as it can be just as stupid to nail a rookie to the bench while playing a mediocre veteran. But Yi just hasn’t shown all that much this far. Scoring is his strength and the fact that he could be guaranteed 2000+ minutes puts him ahead of most rookies.

The projected records are based on projected minutes and production from projected starters for each team. Those numbers are then calculated into points and a record. Some of these will be wildly wrong. Some I don’t even agree with, but I’m putting them out there and we’ll see what happens. In general this system tends to overrate the veteran teams and underrate the younger teams. For that reason if your team falls into one of those categories, take this all with a grain of salt.After the records, I’ll write a little blurb defending or apologizing for the projected record and looking at different angles on each team. The West looks like it will remain fairly static for at least another year, though I feel the top 3 teams will all slide back toward the pack a little bit. Unlike the East, which has several talented, young teams in need of either a final piece or some direction and a weak elite group of teams, the top of the West is still pretty well defined and there don’t appear to be more than one or two teams capable of crashing that group.

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To recap what I’ve been saying for a couple of seasons now: The MVP generally goes to the best player on a team with the best record in their conference. Exceptions would be great teams with a balanced attack, players on a team that improves dramatically from one year to the next, and a player who was just too good to ignore, records be damned. After looking at how the league seems ready to play out this season, I see 3 players whose MVP chances seem to be better than the rest: Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Yao Ming. This has more to do with their team situation than anything else, but that’s usually what decides who ultimately wins the award.

1.      Kevin Garnett, Boston: His numbers were actually down a little last year and could be down again, because he’s with more talented teammates. But Garnett has to be considered the MVP favorite going in.  He’s the top newcomer on a team that’s poised to improve their win total by 30+ games and has a good chance at the best record in their conference. He’s also a veteran, which is something voters have shown a strong preference for in recent years. If Boston wins the 55 games I expect them to, Kevin Garnett would be almost a prohibitive favorite to win the MVP.

2.      Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers, Chicago, Dallas, Phoenix or maybe even New York: Kobe is one of the 3 best players in basketball, along with LeBron and Wade. He’s on the block and a trade to Chicago, Dallas or Phoenix will push him to the top of the list as he would transform any one of those teams into a 60+ win team. Even if he stays with the Lakers and leads them to 50+ wins while scoring 35 PPG, he’ll get some votes. There are a lot of variables here though. If Chicago gets off to a fast start, they may stand pat, as a plucky, young homegrown team is always more fun to win with than an imported, selfish superstar. Nowitzki isn’t on the block now, but could be if the Mavs happen to start falling behind the likes of the Suns, Rockets and Spurs. The Suns are the last team the Lakers want to send Kobe to, but they might become a last resort. Then there’s the remote possibility that things start well for the Lakers and the braintrust and Kobe decide the can live with each other. Until games start being played, won and lost, nobody is certain how this drama will play out. Kobe will become the MVP favorite if he lands in Chicago, Dallas or Phoenix.

3.      Yao Ming, Houston: Yao’s game was at an elite level when he played last year. If he can sustain that improvement and stay healthy all season, he has a good shot at the award, because Houston is loaded and good enough to move in with the West’s elite. I wouldn’t discount the idea that Yao could suddenly become an ironman either. Zy Ilgauskas followed a series of injury-prone seasons with several seasons of all-star caliber center play. Yao is certainly capable of doing the same.

4.      Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas: The reigning MVP is definitely a threat to win his 2^nd straight, as the Mavs are as strong as any team in the league. What will hurt Dirk’s chances is the Mavs seem likely to decline from their 67 wins of last season and the voters have historically been cool to players on teams whose records declined. Dirk is also right in the middle of the Kobe drama, as either the Maverick who will be demoted to sidekick status when Kobe arrives or the player who was traded for Kobe. Either situation would be a fatal blow to Dirk’s chances of a repeat.

5.      Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix: The Suns are also in the mix for the best record and it’s possible the voters will look to someone other than Nash. Stoudemire seems like the player most likely to move into the MVP talk, no matter how much such a scenario would irritate Shawn Marion. Considering he’s already an elite center playing in a fast-paced offense and doesn’t turn 25 until November, Stoudemire has a chance to step up his numbers to monster level. Such a step up, along with the top seed for Phoenix would make him one of the favorites for the award.

6.      Steve Nash, Phoenix: No discussion of the MVP candidates would be complete without the 2-time winner and voter favorite. The Suns are still an elite team and Nash is still the leader, so he’ll be in the MVP mix. I just get the feeling that the voters’ crazy infatuation with his game cooled some last year and some were a little uneasy about how history would feel about them making such a player a 3-time MVP. I expect that feeling to carry over to this season, no matter what happens on the court and in the standings. There’s also the fact that he’s 34. I don’t expect much, if any decline in his game, but he is 34 and that’s an age when many players start to fade.

7.      LeBron James, Cleveland: A player this good is always a threat to win the award. He still has things working against him though. The biggest is the fact that the Cavs appear to be headed for a season where they take a step back in order to take two or three steps forward in the future. There’s also the feeling I have that the voters just don’t find him all that likeable. Many writers seem cool towards him, giving him due praise, but hardly gushing despite the fact that his accomplishments have him on a pace to smash records, win championships and become a worldwide icon in the next decade. I’m just a guy who watches the game from a distance and mainly concentrates on the statistical end of things, but I think he could stand to get some better advice on promoting himself. When Dwayne Wade is causing my eyes to tear up by buying playground equipment for a youth team and tossing the keys of a Navigator to their coach, the LeBrons commercial seems stupid and self-serving in comparison. And donning that Yankees cap at the Indians game was just plain stupid, if harmless. Small stuff to be sure, but it all adds up when voters are picking the MVP. As good as LeBron is, his image could definitely use a boost.

8.      Dwayne Wade, Miami: Miami appears to be in for a tough season. Nothing is certain though and Wade is capable of leading a team with a revitalized Shaq to the best record in the East. When healthy Wade is every bit as valuable the player LeBron, Kobe and Dirk are. Getting Miami to the top spot in what looks like a down year would no doubt get him the MVP. Working against him is the fact he’ll start the season on the injured list and the flimsy supporting cast he’ll join when he returns.

9.      Tim Duncan, San Antonio: A perennial candidate because he’s the best player on one of the best teams. As great as Duncan is, I just don’t see it happening for the Spurs this season. I feel they’re too old and the 2007 championship felt like a last hurrah. I feel they’ll fall behind Dallas and Houston in the Southwest this year. But that’s just my opinion. A poll of most experts would probably have the Spurs as the favorite to win another championship, so that has to be considered. If they’re right and I’m wrong and the Spurs do finish with the best record in the West, Duncan is the most likely player to win the MVP.

10.  Ben Gordon, Chicago: Every year I like to toss a sleeper into the MVP mix and Gordon seems like a good choice this year. He’s never been a 3000+ minutes player, but that could change this season as it’s the first one where he’s the starter going in. If he does log big minutes, Gordon will be one of the league’s leading scorers. That and the likelihood Chicago will end up with the best record in the East make him a decent MVP candidate. Being the most likely Bull to be included in a Kobe deal would hurt his chances, but that drama has yet to play itself out entirely.