In this early season, we always look at the surprise teams, both good and bad. It’s always nice to see a team become great out of nowhere. Going from the lottery to contention in a one-year period is fun but rare. Like the 2007-08 Celtics, the exceptions to the rule are usually memorable (e.g., 2001-02 Nets, 2004-05 Suns). Even intermediate change is rare. We see that this year that some other younger teams in Atlanta and New Orleans are also poking their heads into the playoff picture. This got me wondering how much turnover in the playoff teams should we expect from year-to-year.
Transactions 10/15-12/5
Atlanta Hawks
10/25 Waive Antywane Robinson, Steven Smith and Jamaal Tatum
No real shocks here. Solomon Jones and Mario West won the battle for the last few roster slots, which is great for them, but really doesn’t affect the Hawks much in terms of wins and losses.
What November Means
The first full month is in the books. I’m going to look at what a teams’ conference rank on 11/30 has historically meant and what it means for teams in 2007-08. Here’s a look at each seed at the end of play on November 30th and how well they’ve continued to play. This table goes back to the 1983-84 season, when the current 16-team playoff format began. The column on the left is the team rank on 11/30. The row across the top indicates the final standings. The numbers in the chart show where each team finished. For example teams that were 1st in their conference standings on 11/30 finished 1st 18 times, 2nd 10 times, 3rd 8 times, etc. The 1999 season was not included, because play hadn’t started on 11/30/98 due to the lockout.
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Quick Thoughts
1. Celts-Cavs: Quite a game Cleveland tonight where we watched the Celts take on another possible playoff contender. Boston, whose defense has been good so far, struggled to match up with LeBron James (38 pts, 14-15 from the line, and 13 assists). In the end, the Cavs surged past the Celts to force overtime (after Ray Allen shockingly missed two free throws with the score tied in the last few seconds) and the Celts played their Big Three huge minutes. Kevin Garnett had 44, Ray Allen 49, and Paul Pierce had 45 (subtract four or five minutes from each total to get a sense of how much they really would’ve played without overtime). By overtime, the Big Three were gassed and they were relying way too much on Rajon Rondo (1-9 from the field in 44 minutes).
From the Cavs side, we get a sense that LeBron has enough to compete with any team in the East (a big qualifier). From a Celtic perspective, you have to worry about the heavy minutes. In fact, this is the fourth time in November that Ray Allen has broken the 45-minute barrier. While a hot start is nice, the Celts are going to have to tone it down a bit if they want to be intact come April.
2. Nets Need More Williams: One of the nice surprises of the early season has been Nets rookie center Sean Williams. Williams is clearly very raw. He has only a Yinka Dare-ish 0.1 apg per game (!) but he’s also shown an ability to score on the break and to really block shots (2.2 bpg in only 20 mpg). It’s not clear where Williams will end up as a player yet but it is clear that he must play more. The only alternatives at center so far are Jamaal Magloire (who hasn’t been very good) and Jason Collins (unbelievably bad so far). It’s hard to understate how poor these two have been so far but take a look:
Collins: 17.7 mpg, 0.5 ppg, .250 FG% (3-12 from the field), .100 FT% (1-10 from the line), 2.2 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.1 bpg, 0.1 spg, 0.3 topg
Magloire: 13.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg, .192 FG% (5-26 from the field), .500 FT%, 4.2 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 bpg, 0.0 spg, 0.3 topg
The other big men haven’t been great either. Josh Boone, Malik Allen, and Nenad Krstic have all struggled in the 30% range. But Magloire, and Collins even more, are unacceptable offensively. Collins has somehow devolved from putrid offensive player to absolutely moribund. He has literally done nothing well statistically on a basketball court this year. He can’t score or rebound and the stats don’t indicate that he defends very well either. Now, Collins does defend decently in the help defense department but he certainly doesn’t help well enough to play 18 mpg and star. This is also confirmed by the plus/minus data from 82games.com, which has Collins at -19.3 and Magloire at -20.7 and Williams second on the team at +8.1.
It appears that Lawrence Frank has slowly come to realize this fact, limiting to Collins to 8 minutes in Los Angeles and playing Williams down the stretch. Still, Collins has been something of a security blanket to Frank because he is smart and plays hard (Magloire has already been buried on the bench). Unless there is an emergency, however, Collins’ game has declined too much to play more than 10 minutes a night.
Quick Thoughts
1. Celtic Revival: It’s a pretty fun time to be a Boston sports fan and the Celtics are no small part of the fun right now. Obviously, adding Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen has helped. Not often is a team able to bring in so many big names in a short period. Here’s the short list and how it turned out:
–Wilt/Baylor/West Lakers: The Lakers brought Wilt in for 1969-70 season to put them over the top after a painful seven-game Finals loss in 1967-68. At that time, Wilt (age 33), West (31), and Baylor (35). Wilt was injured for nearly all of the regular season (he played 12 games) and the Lakers were just okay (46-36). Still, he came back for the playoffs and helped lead the team to NBA Finals, where they lost to the Knicks in the legendary Willis Reed Game 7. Baylor was never healthy again but the West/Wilt core, surrounded by a pretty deep roster, kept the team in contention for another three years.
–Barkley/Hakeem/Drexler Rockets: The Rockets acquired Charles Barkley in 1996-97 in a last attempt at a title while Hakeem (age 34) and Drexler (age 34) were still near the top of their game (They had been swept by the Sonics in the second round of the playoffs in 1995-96). Barkley (age 33) played great when healthy (20 ppg 10 rpg, 5 apg) and the team went 57-25 and made it to to the Western Conference Finals before they were submarined by John Stockton’s buzzer beater in Game 6. Barkley and Hakeem declined pretty rapidly the next season in both health and performance and the team slumped to 41-41. They still almost made a nice run in the playoffs (they were up 2-1 on the top seeded Jazz in the first round) until Charles Barkley injured his elbow and missed the rest of the season. Drexler, who was still quite good at age-35, retired to coach the University Houston. It was a bad idea for Drexler, who resigned after two season and a record of 19-39, especially when he probably could’ve squeezed out another good NBA contract. The Rockets replaced Drexler with another Hall of Famer in Scottie Pippen (age 33) for 1998-99. The team improved to 31-19 but, again, lost in the first round. Pippen bitched and moaned and was traded out of town after the season. The Rockets collapsed to 34-48 and the run was over.
–Kobe/Shaq/Payton/Malone Lakers: After losing to the Spurs in 2002-03, the Shaq/Kobe Lakers tried to get a leg up by grabbing a couple of older Hall of Famer free agents, Karl Malone (age 40) and Gary Payton (age 35) to add to Shaq (age 31) and Kobe (age 25). This new four-person star team improved the Lakers six games to 56-26 and made a march to the NBA Finals before being upset by the Pistons 4-1. The team ended up being a one shot deal. They fell apart that off season when Shaq was traded because of contract dispute/blood feud with Kobe. Payton was dealt because he wasn’t quite the same player in L.A. and Malone’s knee injury in the playoffs essentially ended his career.
The 2007-08 Celtics are materially different from all three of these famous star-powered teams. Each one acquired the stars to prolong a playoff run and to put them over the top. The Celtics were a miserable team last year and had been mediocre previously. Getting Allen and Garnett was really more of a desperate attempt at relevance. But sometimes desperate works. The Celts now have the best forward in the East (Garnett age 31), a very good small forward in Pierce (age 30), and Allen (age 34), who is great when healthy but has missed about 30 games in two of the last four years.
As pretty much everyone has noted, even if all three stars play well, lack of depth is a serious issue here. This is where coaching matters. Some coaches do a very good job of maximizing mediocre benches by identifying players who might contribute more than you would think and by enhancing team defense, which is the primary asset that any good coach brings to a team. In that respect, you’d think that the Celts might have to worry. Here are Rivers’ coached teams defensive rankings (points per 100 possessions) as an NBA coach:
2006-07 Celtics, 107.2 pts/100, 17th out of 30
2005-06 Celtics, 106.9 pts/100, 19th out of 30
2004-05 Celtics, 106.6 pts/100, 14th out of 30
2003-04 Magic, 110.8 pts/100, 29th out of 29 (Rivers was fired after a 1-10 start so it’s hard to attribute this all to Doc)
2002-03 Magic, 104.9 pts/100, 20th out of 29
2001-02 Magic, 105.4 pts/100, 16th out of 29
2000-01 Magic, 102.1 pts/100, 10th out of 29
Aside from Doc’s debut with the plucky 2000-01 team with Ben Wallace, Bo Outlaw, and Darrell Armstrong, Doc’s teams have been middling to poor defensively. But so far, the tables have been turned. The Celts have allowed the fewest points per game this year and have really held people down. They key to watch going forward is whether they can keep this awesome defensive pace going. The answer probably depends on Kevin Garnett, who has been a boon on every level, KG has topped the plus/minus stats of all Celctics at 82games.com, he is averaging a ridiculous 14 rpg so far, and is the only above-average defender in their starting five. If he can keep up this pace (and there is little evidence in his past to indicate otherwise) the Celts will remain quite good.
2. Bearish on the Bulls: Though the Bulls are loaded with young talent they have had a rough start on several levels. First off, they are playing quite poorly and they have to decide whether to give big extensions to Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, and, soon enough, Tyrus Thomas. Lastly, they have felt a ton of pressure as to whether they should break up their young core and add a veteran.
As bad as they have played so far, you have to think the Bulls will eventually get it together. They have no major injuries just some a general sense of malaise. This is not a unique thing for a Scott Skiles-Bulls team. Check how if his Bulls’ teams have started in full season as Bulls coach:
2004-05: Bulls started 0-9 and ended up 47-35
2005-06: Started out at about .500 but dipped to 29-39 before finishing 41-41
2006-07: Started out 3-9 (actually 3-3 and then lost 6 straight) and ended up 49-33
In case you’re wondering, Skiles did not have this problem in Phoenix, where he started off hot when he replaced Danny Ainge in early 1999-00 and was hot for all of 2000-01. Skiles was fired in mid-2001-02 with a 25-26 record (this was the year the Suns struggled after trading Jason Kidd). All this is our long way of saying that we have no idea but if you are a Bulls fan you can take solace in the fact that there is a history of fixing terrible starts in Chicago.
3. Keep the Core?: Even harder than fixing the bad start in Chicago, however, is deciding whether to trade some of the core players for a star. The Bulls have the assets and cap room to try to land Kobe Bryant but do they want to? So far, they have shown no inclination (and it does seem that Kobe is temporarily off the market). It’s a hard decision and not many teams get it right. Here’s a quick sampling of some other up-and-coming teams and what they did when they were faced with surplus talent and the possible need for an established star:
–Cleveland of the late 1980s: The Cavs were close with Mark Price, Ron Harper, Larry Nance, Hot Rod Williams, and Brad Daugherty. They decided to cash in Harper for prospect Danny Ferry and play Craig Ehlo at two guard. Ferry ended up being a role player and Harper for Ehlo was not a great swap. It didn’t kill the Cavs as much as injuries did but the trade certainly didn’t help.
–Dallas of the mid-1980s: Another loaded squad with Derek Harper, Rolando Blackman, Mark Aguirre, Roy Tarpley, James Donaldson, and Brad Davis. They sensed they needed toughness so they traded Schrempf for Herb Williams. Williams was okay for a few years but Detlef was an All-Star. The Mavs were undone by Tarpley’s drug problems anyway but they didn’t target the right asset for Schrempf to begin with.
–Golden State of the early 1990s: Yes the exciting Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, Chris Mullin team was loaded with scoring guards in reserve (Sarunas Marciulionis and Mario Elie). Don Nelson decided that Sarunas could replace Richmond so they dealt Mitch to the Kings for high draft pick Billy Owens. Sarunas and then Latrell Sprewell replaced Richmond to some degree but Owens was injured and, ultimately, a wash out.
–Phoenix of the early 1990s: Blessed with Kevin Johnson, Jeff Hornacek, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, and Ced Ceballos, the Suns traded Hornacek and Tim Perry for Charles Barkley. They never won a title but Barkley got the team a lot closer in 1992-93.
The Bulls have a ton of young talent and they could hold onto it all and win 50 games or so but I don’t think this is ultimately a title team if the maintain the status quo. The team has a unique opportunity to package some of their cheap young players for a star (Cleveland and Golden State squandered their young assets by crapping out on rookies who didn’t pan out). Kevin Garnett would have been nice but they have to be players in the Kobe Bryant sweepstakes when it re-appears (and it probably will). Having assets when a great player is available is a like an eclipse, it’s rare event and you better catch it while you can.
A Few Things We Learned This First Week
Although the season has just begun, there are, with apologies to certain former U.S. president, a few truths that have become self-evident. Here are five very early season stories that created some buzz, at least within this author’s mind.
1. The Celtics are really that good
With Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce leading the way the Celtics leap to a 3-0 start and a ridiculous 16.3 margin of victory per game. Assuming health, this team is clearly for real. But with just one other player scoring in double figures (Rajon Rondo at a tepid 10.3 ppg) and basically every stat being dominated by the Big Three, someone else is going to have to step up, especially with Allen’s health problems last year. It will take more than just a few superstars to win a championship (see 2003-2004 Lakers), it takes role players as well and we haven’t quite seen any such sub quite yet.
2. Kevin Durant misses Greg Oden
This may seem odd to say being that he is averaging 22.6 PPG and 5.4 RPG through his first four professional games and getting all the publicity that could have been directed towards his gigantic rookie counterpart. This is a very young team. Durant is obviously the baby at 18 but Chris Wilcox is still only 25, Jeff Green (the other rookie in town), Johan Petro, and Robert Swift are only 21, and Earl Watson (28) and Damien Wilkins (27) aren’t that old either. In fact, the only player older than Watson is Wally Szczerbiak’s poison pill contract and he’s only 30. They won’t be that good this year with such a young squad and the Sonics look like a team that is just biding time before moving to Oklahoma City. With the potential of losing season and the morbidity of watching fans possibly jump ship from the team while ownership antagonizes the populace, a friendly rivalry with Oden could be about the only Durant had to look forward to this season.
3. New Orleans is a team that will be around
Winning four of their first five games by comfortable margins, the Hornets gave New Orleans something to cheer about during the first week of the season. A balanced attack that includes Tyson Chandler averaging double figures and the ultimate sixth man in Bobby Jackson will give them something to cheer about after the last week of the season. Clearly, this offense is driven by Chris Paul is who has 18.6 PPG and a whopping 12.4 APG, which no doubt has gotten the offensively-challenged Chandler, who has never averaged double figures previously (he maxed out at 9.5 ppg last year). Also, having Peja Stojakovic, is big help. His numbers have been really up-and-down. Look at his shooting these first five games:
-Game 1: 7-12 from the field and 4-7 from three
-Game 2: 7-17 from the field and 4-10 from three
-Game 3: 1-10 from the field and 1-8 from three
-Game 4: 12-21 from the field and 10-13 from three
-Game 5: 2-13 from the field and 1-4 from three.
It’s been a wild ride but, even with a couple of stinkers, a diminished Peja is makes a big difference over Rasual Butler and this team has a chance to move up the playoff ladder.
5. The West is no longer a dominant conference
One of the main reasons for the West’s dominance in recent years has been the big men on the left coast. With Garnett’s move combined with Dwight Howard emergence as a dominating big man, the Tim Duncan’s of the world will not get to relax after the Western Conference Finals. It’s pretty early, but the East is a respectable 8-7 against the West, which is a huge improvement so far. This is not to say the East is ready to overtake the West and will win the NBA Championship; I mean c’mon it’s only the first week.