NBA Draft 2012: Harrison Barnes

by Ed Weiland

The feeling out there about Harrison Barnes seems to be that while he’s definitely overhyped, at least he’ll become a player in the mold of a Rudy Gay or Luol Deng and that’s not a bad catch in the 5-10 range of the draft. I think that’s way too optimistic. Here is a look at Barnes compared to SFs drafted in the top 10 in recent years. Players are listed in order of NBA accomplishment, or a reasonable guess at such:

Player	2PP	3PP	P40	R40	ASB40	A/TO
Kevin Durant	505	404	27.3	11.8	5.4	0.5
Carmelo Anthony	496	337	24.4	11.0	5.1	1.0
Shane Battier	536	419	22.8	8.4	7.1	1.2
Andre Iguodala	493	315	14.4	9.4	7.6	1.8
Rudy Gay	500	318	19.4	8.3	7.0	0.8
Luol Deng	514	360	19.4	8.9	5.4	0.8
Mike Miller	559	338	19.7	9.2	5.8	1.3
Mike Dunleavy	596	378	21.3	8.9	6.2	1.2
Josh Childress	536	395	21.0	10.1	6.9	1.2
Marvin Williams	522	432	20.4	11.8	4.1	0.5
Corey Brewer	527	350	18.1	6.8	7.1	1.2
Adam Morrison	523	428	30.7	6.0	3.5	0.8
Rodney White	533	347	24.2	8.4	4.4	0.5
Joe Alexander	480	260	21.4	8.9	5.9	1.1
Harrison Barnes	469	358	21.7	6.6	3.3	0.6

ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes in case you hadn’t figured that out. I use this, because it highlights versatility. This has historically been a big deal for SF prospects. Looking at the players on the list who were busts, starting at Marvin Williams, the clear trend is they come up short in at least one of these categories. Williams, Morrison and White had the low ASB40, Brewer was a poor rebounder and infrequent scorer, Alexander an inefficient scorer, White and Williams had the low A/TO, etc. The successful players may have had a poor number here and there, but all scored efficiently enough, rebounded well and posted an ASB40 over 5.0. Compared to the rest of this group Barnes is an inefficient scorer, a poor rebounder, passer and defender. His 3.3 ASB40 is the lowest number on the list and shows he lacks the all-around game successful SFs have always had. His .469 2-point percentage is also the lowest on the list and suggests the only skill he has yet to flash, scoring, won’t translate that well to the next level.

The next question would be whether or not it would be worthwhile to gamble on his youth and potential. He’s a smart, coachable young man by all accounts. It is possible that the right situation and hard work could turn him into the star he was projected to be coming out of college. Right? Anything is possible, but I have my doubts on this also. The only players who overcame a sub-4 ASB40 as college sophomores to become NBA stars were Glen Rice, Xavier McDaniel, Detlef Schrempf and Chuck Person. All played college ball in the 80s and I have come to not trust 80s numbers when evaluating current players. I’ll add that all other than Schrempf were much more efficient scorers, McDaniel was a PF in college and Rice and Person made their mark because elite shooting skills. Players with a great outside shot are often the exception to my prospect rules. Barnes has yet to display much of a talent for shooting the lights out, so I wouldn’t lump him in with Rice or Person.

This piece on Harrison Barnes made me think of Roger Dorn, the prima donna 3^rd baseman from the movie Major League. Dorn was a fictional baseball player who never got his uniform dirty, because he didn’t want an injury to affect his next contract. Like Roger Dorn, Barnes looks at sports as a business opportunity. Now that’s actually a smart thing. Any person would be a fool not to use an opportunity like Barnes has to make a lot of money out of it. What Barnes doesn’t seem to get is the best way to cash on basketball talent is to have a long, productive NBA career. Back to Dorn, the other similarity he and Barnes share is eschewing the dirty work of their professions. Dorn didn’t dive for ground balls. Barnes has low rates of rebounds, steals and blocks and he rarely passes the ball to an open teammate. Any player who doesn’t do the little things in college is very unlikely to have a long NBA career and the riches that come with it.

Harrison Barnes looks like a player who will become an epic bust if drafted in the top 5 and a disappointment if drafted any time after that. He has played over 2200 minutes of college ball and he still hasn’t shown he can score efficiently enough or rebound, pass and defend well enough to become an effective NBA player. I might be willing to buy into his legendary potential and risk a draft choice around the time round 2 starts, but I would not draft him before that.

June 18, 2012 | In NBA Draft | 8 Comments

8 Comments »

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“ASB40 is combined assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes in case you hadn’t figured that out. I use this, because it highlights versatility.”

I think you just gave the wrong reason why you use this great predictive stat. I believe ASB40 and RSB40 work so well because they are indicators of “applied athleticism” – a very relevant blend of feel for the game, nose for the ball and the type of athletic ability you need to succeed in basketball.

Comment by Jacob — June 18, 2012 #
[...] Ed Weiland [...]

Pingback by The FAD Kids of the 2012 Draft: Fresh Athletic Deadbets « bballpants – on Basketball. — June 18, 2012 #
They also transfer 75%+ over to the nba. you can’t count on are Points, TOs, and Shooting.

http://probasketballdraft.com/component/content/article/78-featurearticles/520-production-you-can-count-on.html

Ian Levy’s work on skill carryover is amazing.

You can call it applied athleticism, or you can call it working hard at what the coach teaches you. You can be hot stuff at shooting in college but if you don’t have anything to fall back on when you get to elite NBA defense…it’s going to be a hard road.

Comment by bballpants — June 18, 2012 #
[...] attorney. 8th: Forum Blue & Gold. Thank you. Pau Gasol is a center. Thank you. 9th: HoopsAnalyst. Taking on Harrison Barnes. 10th: The Point Forward. Zach Lowe credits Miami’s ever-improving [...]

Pingback by Lenore Koch Smith - The 10-man rotation, starring the NBA’s most overpaid players — June 19, 2012 #
Jacob: Very well put. “Applied athleticism” is an excellent term for the combination of different stats and how they predict NBA success.

Comment by Ed — June 23, 2012 #
[...] weak defensive and rebounding numbers. Generally such players don’t make it as I detailed in the Harrison Barnes piece from the 2012 draft preview. Barnes will be an interesting test case for low ASB40 players. I do [...]

Pingback by NBA Draft 2013: Early Look at the Small Forwards | Hoops Analyst — August 18, 2012 #
[...] top overall prospect going to a team looking to bust out, he deserves a mention. Here’s my take on Barnes going into the draft is you care to see the logic behind my opinions. As for Barnes’ ROY chances, [...]

Pingback by NBA 2013 Preview: Who Will Win the ROY? | Hoops Analyst — October 24, 2012 #
[...] a supposedly dominant player like Muhammad, the ability to record a significant number of assists, steals and blocks is important. Muhammad has come up terribly short in these categories so [...]

Pingback by NBA Draft 2013: Why Shabazz Muhammad Seems Unlikely to Fulfill High Expectations | Scripting4You Blog — January 11, 2013 #