I’ve already done a piece on Otto Porter, who I consider the top SF prospect and one on James Ennis and Maurice Kemp, who I would put at 2nd and 3rd behind Porter in the 2013 SF rankings. This is a look at the rest of what is a pretty strong group of SFs. I’ll do the combo forwards in my next piece later this week. Here are the numbers:
|
Player |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
ASB40 |
A/TO |
| Giannis Adetokonbo |
622 |
316 |
16.9 |
8.9 |
5.5 |
0.9 |
| Reggie Bullock |
545 |
436 |
17.8 |
8.2 |
5.6 |
2.4 |
| Solomon Hill |
508 |
390 |
16.2 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
1.2 |
| Shabazz Muhammad |
463 |
377 |
23.2 |
6.8 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
| Ian Hummer |
534 |
292 |
19.1 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
1.0 |
| Deshaun Thomas |
500 |
344 |
22.3 |
6.7 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
| Sergey Karasev |
410 |
490 |
19.1 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
Players are listed in order of how I would draft them all other things being equal.
Giannis Adetokonbo, Filathlitikos: Adetokonbo is an 18 year-old playing in a lower league in Greece where these numbers were posted. I have no idea of the level of play in this league, nor do I have any idea of the pace. I can say that the .622 is an impressive number for a young player and the 5.5 ASB40 is good as well. I also like that he’s listed as a point forward, though there’s little in his assist numbers to suggest he’s ready for such a role in the NBA.
Adetokonbo looks like a decent upside pick to me and that makes him the top player in this group. His stats are more impressive than the other foreign players and the option of stashing him overseas for a year or two, if that’s available, is an appealing thing for teams looking to manage the tight cap.
Reggie Bullock, North Carolina: He’s listed as a SG in some places, but is much more of a SF in the way he plays. SGs tend to be gunners who score a lot of points. Bullock has that solid all-around game I look for in SFs, but hasn’t been the type of scorer who typically succeeds at SG.
Breaking down a player’s stats is helpful for me, especially in the case of someone like Bullock who spent his 3 college seasons as a supporting player on a power team, after coming to Carolina as a top 20 prospect.
|
Reggie Bullock |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
ASB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
465 |
296 |
15.7 |
7.1 |
3.5 |
1.2 |
| Sophomore |
510 |
382 |
12.6 |
7.3 |
3.2 |
1.3 |
| Nov-Dec |
509 |
475 |
19.0 |
8.3 |
7.3 |
2.8 |
| January |
500 |
413 |
17.7 |
7.0 |
4.3 |
1.5 |
| February |
594 |
417 |
16.9 |
8.0 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
| March |
613 |
426 |
15.0 |
8.5 |
4.4 |
1.8 |
Best thing I see here is how the efficiency improved during his career. Bullock improved both inside and outside the arc during his 3 seasons. That he topped .600 and .420 in his final 2 months is very impressive. The biggest negative I see is that he just wasn’t a big time scorer, only hitting 19.0 P40 during the pre-season schedule. The other problem is that a large majority of the ASB40 is Assists. His SB40, not a number I often use for SFs, is 3rd lowest, behind DeShaun Thomas and Shabazz Muhammad, of any SF in this draft. This tells me his defense is very suspect.
Reggie Bullock has some skills. He can shoot the 3-pointer pretty well and he’s a good enough ballhandler that he might be able to play some point forward. Any team looking for a shooter on the wing would do well to look at Bullock. Because of his shaky defense and the fact that he has never embraced the role of a big time scorer, I doubt his high end is much more than that of a good role player though.
Solomon Hill, Arizona: A good college player. Hill had a tough senior year, possibly because he was dealing with one of the top freshman classes in the nation that turned out to be something of an erratic bunch. He has put up some nice, well-rounded stats during his 4 years:
|
Solomon Hill |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
ASB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
526 |
222 |
10.6 |
6.9 |
3.8 |
0.8 |
| Sophomore |
524 |
354 |
12.7 |
7.5 |
4.4 |
1.0 |
| Junior |
552 |
394 |
16.0 |
9.6 |
5.1 |
1.1 |
| Senior |
508 |
390 |
16.2 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
1.2 |
Hill has some good stuff in his numbers. He’s made himself into a good 3-point shooter and his 2PP has consistently been over .500. His 9.6 R40 as a junior says he’s a better rebounder than his career numbers suggest. His rebounding numbers were probably affected by playing with Derrick Williams his first two seasons and with 3 highly-touted freshman bigs his senior year.
A recent success who Hill reminds me of is Chandler Parsons. Like Parsons, Hill comes into the draft as a senior from a powerhouse program. Both were low-volume scorers whose strengths are passing and 3-point shooting. Parsons was a better rebounder, but Hill did flash solid rebounding skill his junior year. Parsons was something of a surprise and his success doesn’t mean there will be another Chandler Parsons surprising us in 2013. But it does mean teams will be keeping an eye out for the next Chandler Parsons when round two rolls around. Solomon Hill is the SF most likely to surprise and make a Parsons-like impact of the group in the 2013 draft.
Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA: I’ve written a lot on the importance of college SFs posting an ASB40 over 5.0. I mentioned it in last year’s piece on Harrison Barnes. A common stat of recent SFs who were drafted in the top 10 and busted as pros is an ASB40 below 5.0. This group includes Marvin Williams, Adam Morrison, Rodney White, Derrick Williams and Harrison Barnes. While Barnes had a rookie year of some promise and could break this trend, the others are a Who’s Who of recent SF busts. The pros seem to have latched on to this trend with Muhammad as he has fallen from one of the top prospects in the draft at the start of the year to a guy who is barely in the lottery in most mocks on the eve of the draft.
Going back farther in history, players like Glen Rice, Chuck Person and Mo Peterson all went on to long NBA careers following a college career that featured a low ASB40. Those three could shoot the lights out, which is an X-factor that could keep any player in the league. Muhammad was well over .400 for most of the year from behind the arc before a late slump left him at .377. That’s his best hope for sticking around.
Another thing to mention with Muhammad is the Ben Howland factor. During the Howland era, perimeter players from UCLA have consistently outplayed their college stats in the NBA. I’m not sure how to factor this in with Muhammad. His numbers are pretty terrible for a prospect, so it’s hard for me to believe a coaching style could suppress them so much. This is something worth mentioning though.
There are a lot of other things to dislike about Muhammad’s numbers. The .463 2PP, the low rebounding rate and the miniscule ASB40 are all flashing red lights that point to a bust. This wouldn’t be a big deal with a player who didn’t come in as the #2 prospect in the nation and still appears likely to be drafted in the top 20, possibly higher.
Despite his poor stats, teams will eventually have to look Muhammad’s way as the draft transpires. He does have enough skill that the experts had him pegged him as the #2 overall prospect in his class. He’s still young and with the Howland factor in play he’s probably at least a tad better than his numbers. I can’t see using a first round pick on him, but I’d start thinking about him in round 2.
DeShaun Thomas, Ohio State: See Shabazz Muhammad comment. Thomas suffers from the same low ASB40 problem. Thomas has posted some impressive scoring numbers over the years. He hit .599 on 2-pointers while scoring 20.0 P40 as a soph. He’s always been an aggressive scorer who is efficient from 2-point range. Unlike a lot of low ASB40 players he doesn’t have a turnover problem. He doesn’t have the same potential of becoming a gunner as Muhammad, as he’s never topped 35% on 3-pointers. Thomas is semi-intriguing as a prospect because of his 2-point prowess. But the low ASB40 is a tough thing to overcome and any SF with that on his resume without the extenuating factors Muhammad has should only be considered on the UFA market.
Sergey Karasev, Triumph Moscow: Karasev’s numbers are for only 350 minutes. He looks very soft to me, other than his 3-point shooting ability. This is a solid year for SF prospects coming out of college. I see no need to burn a first rounder on a player like Karasev who has only shown an ability to hit the 3-pointer. Gunners are nice to have, but there would seem to be a lot better options out there than this guy.
Ian Hummer, Princeton: A player I’ve watched for a few years now. Hummer has shown some promise but just never broke out. He might be the best passing SF available and he’s a solid rebounder and defender. As a scorer, he’s been OK, but hasn’t developed an outside shot. His stats are less impressive than they look considering they were posted in the Ivy League.