NBA Draft 2013: Why Cleveland Should Draft Nerlens Noel

Since I started the 2013 draft analysis with the 12/31 rankings, the only thing that has been easy about the process is placing Nerlens Noel at the top. The knee injury was a huge setback, but in the time he played Noel put up some excellent numbers that put him in pretty good company. Here are players who have topped .590 2PP, 10.0 R40 and 5.0 B40 as freshmen, as Noel did this past year:

Player	2PP	P40	R40	S40	B40	A/TO
Hakeem Olajuwan	607	18.2	13.5	2.0	5.4	0.3
Alonzo Mourning	609	18.6	10.3	0.6	7.0	0.4
Anthony Davis	653	17.4	12.7	1.7	5.7	1.2
Brian Skinner	598	18.8	11.7	1.2	5.5	0.2
Nerlens Noel	590	13.1	11.9	2.6	5.5	0.7

Good company here. Skinner didn’t match up to the top 2 and Davis remains a work in progress. Skinner had problems with TOs and his efficiency regressed after his sophomore season. Skinner did stick in the NBA for 14 seasons though. As for Noel and this group, the fact that he had more steals than the other players here says a lot about his potential as an all-around defender. It’s clear though that his offense needs work if he is to become more than just a defensive stud on the level of Brian Skinner.

Noel did improve his offense quite a bit as his freshman year progressed and his efficiency numbers were on track to top .600 had the injury not happened.

Nerlens Noel	2PP	P40	R40	S40	B40	A/TO
Nov-Dec	548	14.1	12.1	3.6	4.8	1.0
Jan-Feb	644	12.3	11.7	1.8	6.2	0.7

The reason this is a big deal is he improved a lot during his SEC regular season when the competition is much tougher and numbers usually decline. He still wasn’t scoring at a high rate, but he was much more efficient. Notice how the blocks improved and the steals declined. That might be a sign he was roaming less on defense and focusing more on protecting the rim, which is what a player with his skills should be doing. What the change in B40 and S40, along with the improvement in 2PP suggests is that while Nerlens Noel is a work in progress, he’s also a fast learner. That’s a very good sign for a player who clearly has a lot of work to do on offense.

There are concerns about Noel though. I’ll address them one at a time in order of how much they concern me.

1. The knee injury. This is a big deal and something that needs to be thoroughly researched and investigated. That he also suffered a knee injury in high school is troubling. Not being a medical professional, I can’t say hwo big a problem this will be. This article suggests the injury suffered in high school isn’t a concern. As far as the torn ACL, quoting this article on ACL recovery from Johns Hopkins: “approximately 95% of patients return to their previous level of activity without restrictions. In the other 5%, full return may be limited by a number of causes: pain, swelling, persistent laxity, change in lifestyle related to age, intentional choice, or other unidentifiable causes.” Considering Noel is young, otherwise healthy and should have the best medical care and advice available, I’m guessing he’ll fall into the 95%. The biggest issue with NBA players returning from ACL surgery has been coming back too early. A lot of that has to do with the competitive nature of the elite athlete that tells them to get back on the court and play through pain. The best thing for Noel and the team that drafts him is to have patience. The team that drafts him needs to accept the fact that he may not be playing until 2014 at the earliest. If there are structural issues in Noel’s knees that suggest the violent cutting and quick starting and stopping involved in playing NBA basketball makes him a player likely to be injury prone and eventually retire early, that definitely has to be factored in. That’s something I have no idea about. His past injuries shouldn’t be a problem if handled correctly. The big question is whether he’s more prone to future knee injuries just because the way he’s built isn’t strong enough for the way he plays.
2. The Hair. This probably makes me come across like another 50something grump who flies into a “get off my lawn” rage whenever he sees a different and radical look on a young whippersnapper like Noel. There is certainly some truth to that. But what really worries me here is the fact that the look Noel decided to emulate is that of JR Reid. Reid was the top HS prospect in 1986. Reid rates as one of the biggest busts ever to come out of high school as the top overall player. As the top overall player in 2012, going with the JR Reid look shows poor judgment, Nerlens. Trivia: JR’s first name is Herman.
3. His Weight: He weighed in at 206 at the combine. The line was that he lost weight to help with recovery from the injury. That makes sense. His bio from the official Wildcat site lists him at 228, but those aren’t always accurate. This is something I rarely worry about, especially since we’re talking about a teenager. Because he’s young, even as freshmen go, he’ll put on some weight as he gets older. He also will have the resources to hire exercise and nutritional experts who should be able to help him pack on some weight and muscle. It’s even possible being smaller and quicker will be something of an asset in what’s becoming a smaller, quicker league. What worries me is that his smaller frame makes him more injury-prone.
4. The Offense: He didn’t score a lot as a freshman and is clearly very raw on that end of the court. There is a lot of work to be done here, but there are also signs Noel can get to where he needs to be. The first is he’s actually a pretty good passer as big men go. He was 3^rd among the 2013 center crop in A40, behind only Olynyk and Dieng. It’s not like he’s some TO-prone bumbler on offense who teammates are afraid to pass the ball to. The other thing I like is the improvement he showed this year before the injury. He was hitting .644 on 2-pointers in January and February. This just isn’t an easy thing to do, regardless of whether or not it’s nothing but layups and putbacks. If it were easy it wouldn’t be such a rare accomplishment for freshmen. He’s a very athletic, very young 7-footer who has already shown the ability to improve weaknesses in his game. It’s not a stretch at all to see Noel developing some effective offensive moves. Even if he remains weak on offense, a dominant defender and solid rebounder who hits 60% of layups and putbacks is a pretty valuable player anyways. There’s a big difference between a player who is an offensive liability and a player who just doesn’t take a lot of shots. Noel looks very much like the latter.

The NBA is a pretty simple game. The winning equation involves superstars. Acquiring superstars equals realistically competing for championships. Nerlens Noel, more so than any player available in the 2013 draft is a potential superstar. He has the potential to compete for Defensive POY every year. He’s raw, but he shows enough promise on offense that he’s capable of eventually developing an effective offensive repertoire. At the high end he’ll become a solid 20+ PPG scorer and that would make him an MVP candidate assuming his defense and rebounding remain strong.

Because superstars are rare, teams have to jump when one becomes available. Teams can go decades without ever having the opportunity to draft a potential superstar. Cleveland is fortunate in getting a 2^nd opportunity to draft one in a decade. They should roll the dice and draft Nerlens Noel. I understand the desire to make the playoffs next year. I also understand the concern about drafting a big guy who comes with some injury risk. But the high end payoff with Noel is just too great to take a pass on, even if it ends up badly. If the Cavs trade in their winning lottery ticket for a later draft pick and a couple of above-average veterans coming off career years, just so they can sneak into the playoffs in 2014, I don’t want to hear any “God hates Cleveland” whining if Noel is killing it for some lucky team in 2016 and the Cavs are still just sneaking into the playoffs.