This is a very weak group of PFs this year. Probably the only group that lives down to the ridiculous “worst draft ever” assessments we’re hearing about 2013. I did write ups on the two best prospects, Cody Zeller and Tony Mitchell. The rest I put in groups without much comment, because there isn’t much to add other than all are marginal prospects who are worth a look, but probably not a draft pick. There were no foreign PFs who looked worthy of a mention.
The PF benchmarks I look for are 2PP of .580, P40 of 18.0, R40 of 10.0, SB40 of 3.5 and an A/TO that doesn’t fall too far below 0.3. With 2PP, R40 and SB40, the higher the number, the better the prospect becomes. Should any statistic fall below any of these numbers, that’s considered a red flag.
Cody Zeller, Indiana: I decided to put Zeller at PF, but he could just as easily be listed at Center. I feel PF is his likely NBA position. He’s 230 lbs which is closer to PF size. Defensively he’s not a great shot blocker, like the best centers have been, but he does get a lot of steals for a big guy. That fits the profile of a PF better than a center. He’ll probably play both positions, but I feel he’ll be a better pro PF.
I’ve gone back and forth on Zeller. I didn’t feel he was up to the hype coming into the year as a top 3 pick. He had been a poor rebounder as a freshman and that’s a big negative for a big guy even though his offense was stellar. Now that he’s out of the top 10 in most mocks, I’m starting to warm to the guy. He has become a better rebounder and though his defensive numbers are mediocre at best, they’re good enough to give him a passing grade. Here’s a look at Zeller’s career:
|
Cody Zeller |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
623 |
0 |
21.5 |
9.0 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
| Sophomore |
567 |
0 |
22.9 |
11.1 |
3.2 |
0.6 |
As a freshman his main statistical comps were mainly short, stocky types like Craig Smith, Ike Diogu and Corliss Williamson. As a sophomore he improved his rebounding and moved into a much better group of comps. Here are players who topped 21.0 P40, 11/0 R40, 3.0 SB40 and .550 2PP as sophomores like Zeller did this past year.
|
Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Chris Webber |
679 |
24.3 |
12.7 |
4.9 |
0.9 |
| Elton Brand |
620 |
24.2 |
13.4 |
4.7 |
0.6 |
| Joakim Noah |
629 |
22.7 |
11.4 |
5.7 |
1.1 |
| Joe Smith |
586 |
25.5 |
13.0 |
5.4 |
0.6 |
| Brian Skinner |
601 |
21.1 |
11.1 |
4.8 |
0.2 |
| Mike Sweetney |
569 |
25.0 |
13.1 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
| Stromile Swift |
634 |
21.7 |
11.0 |
5.7 |
0.4 |
| Cody Zeller |
567 |
22.9 |
11.1 |
3.2 |
0.6 |
Zeller isn’t the dominator that Webber, Brand and Noah were at this point in their careers and for that reason it would be a stretch to think he’s an all-star. But his improvement in rebounding and the fact that has 2PP was at .623 as a freshman suggests he can be an effective, good offense/soft defense type of NBA PF.
There has also been buzz that Cody Zeller is a pretty decent 3-point shooter. I have no reason to doubt that, but I would like to see some proof of it before I factor it in. He has taken only 2 shots from behind the arc in his college career, missing both. The fact that he hasn’t been a shooter doesn’t mean he can’t shoot. On the flip, the fact that he won the team 3-point contest at Hoosier Hysteria doesn’t mean he can consistently knock down 3-pointers in an NBA game situation.
Whether or not Zeller adds a 3-pointer to his repertoire, he remains a decent big man prospect. He’s a solid scorer and an adequate rebounder and defender. He has a rep as a hard worker and the improvement in rebounding would seem to verify this. It’s unlikely that he’ll live up to the hype that was buzzing around him at the start of the season, but he looks like a guy who will become a solid rotation player who sticks in the league for a long time, not to mention the most successful Zeller of this generation.
Tony Mitchell, North Texas: While Cody Zeller was the favorite of the mainstream media coming into the 2012-13 season, Mitchell was the guy I had pegged as the top returning player. While Zeller was a mild disappointment, Mitchell fell off the cliff.
|
Tony Mitchell |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Freshman |
599 |
437 |
19.7 |
13.8 |
5.2 |
0.6 |
| Sophomore |
505 |
300 |
15.6 |
10.2 |
4.4 |
0.3 |
These numbers were posted in the smaller Sun Belt conference, where players need to dominate in order to be considered top prospects. Just looking at the sophomore stats without considering his freshman stats, Mitchell is a player who wouldn’t even be considered draftworthy. A breakdown of his freshman numbers shows that his fade started before this year:
|
Tony Mitchell 2011-12 |
2PP |
3PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Nov-Dec |
611 |
250 |
18.1 |
11.7 |
4.7 |
0.6 |
| January |
685 |
650 |
25.9 |
15.2 |
5.3 |
0.5 |
| February |
559 |
154 |
17.6 |
16.1 |
5.7 |
0.6 |
| March |
444 |
500 |
14.3 |
9.3 |
5.1 |
0.4 |
Mitchell missed the start of the season and the Nov-Dec numbers are for only 6 games. The March numbers are for just 3 games, as the Mean Green’s season ended with a loss in the Sun Belt tournament. What’s clear is that Mitchell’s great freshman year was driven by one great month and possibly that at only 676 total minutes he didn’t play long enough for the stats to fall to a point where they better reflect his ability. Whether this is a case of the Sun Belt adjusting to Mitchell and him not readjusting to get back to where he was or that January was just a hot streak, it remains the only month Mitchell has looked like a real prospect. The best thing about his numbers is his defense has remained consistently good.
In addition to his wildly inconsistent play Mitchell has a couple of other red flags. The first is he was a transfer. That’s just never good. The next is his team struggled in a small conference. Team success matters, especially at the lower levels.
Mitchell is a huge risk as a first round draftee. At times in his career he has shown he can do everything a PF prospect needs to do, but he has yet to put it all together while playing at a level an NBA prospect should dominate. The best case scenario is this down year serves as a wake-up call for Mitchell and he works hard to get back to becoming the player who was so dominant during January of his freshman year. That’s probably wishful thinking, but enough to make Mitchell worthy of an early round 2 pick.
Here’s a quick look at the rest of the PF field for 2013:
The Rebounders
|
Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Arselan Kazemi |
598 |
12.5 |
13.4 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
| Jack Cooley |
579 |
18.8 |
14.5 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
| Trevor Mbakwe |
568 |
15.7 |
13.6 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
| Richard Howell |
570 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
2.4 |
1.1 |
All these guys hit a decent percentage of their shots, but none are big time scorers. Mbakwe is older and has some off court issues that teams may not want to deal with. Kazemi has a very high, 2.7, S40 for a PF and that makes him somewhat intriguing. I wouldn’t go anything but UFA on this group but all are at least worth a look.
The Small College Studs
|
Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Ed Daniel |
568 |
16.8 |
12.7 |
3.6 |
0.5 |
| Keith Rendleman |
549 |
20.1 |
12.4 |
3.9 |
0.4 |
| Jamelle Hagins |
548 |
13.6 |
12.5 |
3.9 |
0.5 |
| Taylor Smith |
694 |
18.9 |
11.1 |
4.6 |
0.9 |
| Paul Millsap |
578 |
22.9 |
15.5 |
4.9 |
0.4 |
| Kenneth Faried |
623 |
20.5 |
16.5 |
4.8 |
0.4 |
I added the numbers of Millsap and Faried from the years they were drafted, just for some perspective. These were the two recent small college PF successes. Both came in with monster stats, especially in rebounding, that none of the small college players from 2013 can match. That’s something to keep in mind should some pundit refer to Ed Daniel the next Faried.
The Best of the Rest
|
Player |
2PP |
P40 |
R40 |
SB40 |
A/TO |
| Reginald Buckner |
587 |
12.5 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
| Brandon Davies |
527 |
23.2 |
10.5 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
| Jackie Carmichael |
537 |
22.3 |
11.9 |
3.9 |
0.4 |
| Alex Oriakhi |
639 |
16.9 |
12.6 |
3.3 |
0.3 |
| Carl Hall |
573 |
19.7 |
10.7 |
3.3 |
0.8 |
There was a time as the season was happening when I thought Buckner might be capable of doing what Taj Gibson has done. But he faded back to his norms as the year went on and like all the Rebels his numbers declined when the pace adjustments were factored in. He’s a good defender though and tops this group for that reason. Davies has an OK outside shot. Oriakhi had his best season after transferring to Missouri from UConn. As with the other groups, there isn’t a lot to separate these guys. Any one of these guys could find himself on an NBA roster next year, but none projects to having a career of more than a journeyman.