NBA Draft 2016: Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield scored a lot of points last season. He scored points at a pace rarely seen from a player in a power 5 conference. Buddy scored enough to win the Wooden award as the nation’s top player. He did this as a senior following 3 seasons where he made himself into a solid player, but nothing close to what he was this past year.

 

Buddy Hield	2PP	3PP	P40	S40	A/TO	RSB40
Freshman	481	238	7.8	1.9	1.1	9.0
Sophomore	512	386	20.6	1.7	1.0	7.4
Junior	469	359	21.5	1.7	1.0	8.6
Senior	548	460	27.4	1.2	0.7	8.1

It is always impressive when there’s improvement like Hield had. The 2 red flags from his senior year would be the low S40 and A/TO. The fact that both were aberrations  from his 3 previous years suggests this might not be a problem at all. He has shown he can score both often and efficiently. While there’s nothing here that suggests he’ll be a dominant defender, Hield’s numbers are solid enough.  Same thing with Hield’s passing.  He doesn’t pass a lot, and his TOs were a little too high this year, but there isn’t a lot of evidence that he’ll be an erratic player.

Here are some other big NCAA scoring guards from the past several seasons. I pulled from all levels just to get more players to compare.

NCAA Scorer	2PP	3PP	P40	A40	S40	A/TO	RSB40
Stephen Curry	519	387	34.0	6.6	3.0	1.5	8.6
Damian Lillard	517	409	28.4	4.6	1.7	1.7	7.8
JJ Redick	521	421	28.9	2.8	1.6	1.1	3.7
Gary Neal	484	405	29.6	3.3	2.0	1.0	6.6
Jodie Meeks	521	406	27.1	2.0	1.5	0.7	5.6
Rodney Stuckey	539	372	29.3	5.0	2.7	1.2	8.8
Jimmer Fredette	491	396	32.3	4.8	1.5	1.2	5.4
John Jenkins	487	409	27.4	2.9	0.9	0.8	7.4
Lester Hudson	520	355	29.6	4.5	2.5	1.3	11.7
Jermaine Taylor	551	376	32.8	2.4	1.6	0.7	9.1
Buddy Hield	548	460	27.4	2.2	1.2	0.7	8.1

Curry and Lillard have both made a huge mark on the NBA. Both were scoring PGs in college and have excelled in that role as professionals. Stuckey and Fredette were also scoring PGs. Stuckey was able to forge a decent career, Fredette not so much. Hield is more like the other prospects on this list, Redick, Neal, Meeks and Jenkins. The first 3 of those players became solid journeymen pros. Jenkins has yet to become more than a low-minutes bench player.

Hield is actually ahead of where those 4 were.  He’s a much more efficient scorer than the rest. His defensive numbers are better. He is big enough that playing the SF in a small lineup is possible. I would say a career like Redick’s or Meeks’s is more reflective of Hield’s floor than an actual comp.

I don’t see Hield as a star necessarily though. The only skill he showed dominance in was scoring and he didn’t do that until his senior season. The great ones are almost always at least flashing some dominance early on. His defense and passing skills would be best described as adequate. His vastly improved scoring did coming with an increase in both turnovers and turnover rate.

What I see with Buddy Hield is a better version of JJ Redick or Jodie Meeks. He’ll light it up on occasion, and possibly approach 20 PPG in his best seasons. I don’t see him as a type who can consistently carry a team though. His high end is that of a Klay Thompson. That’s a player who will excel in the right situation. That makes Buddy Hield an easy top 10 pick.