Quick Thoughts

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1.    Falkenstein Ruminations:    While the playoff chase whirls in our faces, the background story people are talking about relates to the economic and labor health of the game.  Revenues are projected as down for the next few seasons and David Stern, for the first time, is telling teams to expect the salary cap and the luxury tax threshold lower over each of the next three seasons.  As a consequence, all eyes are on whether the NBA will seek to renegotiate the key terms of the collective … [Read more...] about Quick Thoughts

NCAA Tourney Preview

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In picking the NCAA tournament winner, and the final four teams, one important factor has stood out in recent years. Teams with the best big men do well. Not the big men who win college POY awards, but the big men who will be drafted in the top ten. There are other important things. It’s good for the backcourt to have as many good players as possible and a good coach is a nice thing to have. But the main thing is having a strong inside game. Going back the last 7 years, it’s clear that the teams … [Read more...] about NCAA Tourney Preview

NBA Draft Update

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Right now a good historical reference as to how the 2009 draft turns out might be the 1989 draft. This draft was weak at the top, but had some pretty good guards chosen later in round one. That’s a little how I think this one will end up. The draft is void of can’t-miss types, but is deep enough with wing players that I’m sure a sleeper or three will emerge from later in the draft.  I’ll list the prospects as I did last month. I feel it’s best to look draft prospects in this order: … [Read more...] about NBA Draft Update

Quick Thoughts

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1.    Playoff Meanderings:    On an overall level, the Eastern Conference has caught up the West.  Three of the top four teams are in the East and they have been pretty effective against the West.  Nevertheless, the West is absolutely flying in terms of playoff position.  Right now, the West's top eight have winning percentages of .600 or better (projecting to 49-50 wins) and Phoenix is ninth with a .557 winning percentage (which projects to about 46 wins).  Now, we've looked at the playoffs a … [Read more...] about Quick Thoughts

Transactions: 1/19-2/24

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Boston Celtics   2/17    Traded Sam Cassell to Sacramento for a conditional 2015 second-round draft pick 2/19    Traded Patrick O'Bryant to Toronto for a conditional second-round pick in 2014 2/24    Signed Mikki Moore  For Boston, Sam-I-Am was always an insurance policy for Rajon Rondo.  Since that time Rondo has played quite well and they haven't needed to try to cash in the Cassell policy, save for one game against San Antonio last spring.  Even so, the Celts are still very thin … [Read more...] about Transactions: 1/19-2/24

Top Heavy NBA

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Most believe that NBA title contention is likely limited to Boston, Cleveland, and the Los Angeles Lakers.  I was just checking out Basketball-Reference's cool playoff probability reports, which essentially confirm all of our hunches on this point.  As of right now, each team of these teams has about the same chance of winning the title (with Cleveland a little bit higher on the totem pole).  Moreover, each team is projected to win at least 63 games.  Assuming everyone stays healthy, all three … [Read more...] about Top Heavy NBA

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